December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

Range AI looks to flatten the ridge a bit.

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[Michael1]

Big misconception.
We are in a neutral state. It's a small part of the puzzle with all other indices suggesting an +ENSO-like setup.

And the cool phase of the PDO??? this is not normal atmospheric behavior. Yes, it is a neutral phase, albeit a cool neutral; together with a cool PDO, this should not be possible. I remember a few years back, when we had a strong La Nina and everyone was saying neutral conditions give us better snow chances. Every year, we find a new explanation.

[stuffradio]

And the cool phase of the PDO??? this is not normal atmospheric behavior. Yes, it is a neutral phase, albeit a cool neutral; together with a cool PDO, this should not be possible. I remember a few years back, when we had a strong La Nina and everyone was saying neutral conditions give us better snow chances. Every year, we find a new explanation.

Classic Ninas are back-loaded. We have just had good luck of having front-loaded winters in the last few years.

[stuffradio]

Neetz can mow his lawn on Christmas morning!

Stores like to start putting out Spring things the day after Christmas.

[Hawk]

Unfortunately in any sample there will always be anomalies.

In general, over the course of recorded history, La Nina's tend to lean colder and wetter our region, while El Nino's trend the opposite way. Hence why the long range forecasts were leaning cooler and wetter.

There are some winters in the analogues (like 1966-67 or 2005-06) that were anomalies and this one could very well follow suit.

Yes i know..but just our luck! Why cant it trend #TeamSnows way for once. Be a cold and Snowy anomalous winter
We aren't getting any younger!!

[AbbyJr]

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[Hawk]

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#Carrots
>>pushed further and further back

[tyweather]

Looks like powder skiing up in Northern BC during Christmas break is out this year. +18c 850mb temps in the Peace!

[Catnip]

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[C] =

I feel like those control runs are showing super cold solutions more often than not.

They gotta be right maybe 1/100 times right?

[Catnip]

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[Hawk]

#CatnipHill = Doesn't matter in December 2024

[Typeing3]

I still think we could see historic warmth towards late month. GOA vortex with that ridge axis further east will yield many ARs with a direct southerly flow.

The late December 1980 heatwave will be very tough to beat.

[Catnip]

#CatnipHill = Doesn't matter in December 2024

#CypressHill won't matter either soon.

[Typeing3]

And the cool phase of the PDO??? this is not normal atmospheric behavior. Yes, it is a neutral phase, albeit a cool neutral; together with a cool PDO, this should not be possible. I remember a few years back, when we had a strong La Nina and everyone was saying neutral conditions give us better snow chances. Every year, we find a new explanation.

We can get stinkers even in a cold phase of the PDO. Case in point, 1999-2000 and 2000‐01 La Nina's occurred during negative PDO.

Additionally, the PDO was still positive in 2016-17 and that didn't stop a cold winter from unfolding.

These are for guidance and not gospel. Every winter will not follow the script even if there's a higher chance of warmer or colder than average conditions. An 80% chance of a cold winter is great for forecasting, but there's still a 20% chance that it may turn out wrong.

There have been warm La Nina winters before -- they just don't occur as frequently as cold La Nina winters, hence why they tilt colder than average for our region.

[Typeing3]

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That really looks like a textbook strong El Nino pattern. 2015-16, 2009-10, 1997-98, etc.