November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[wetcoast91]

American forums:

Acknowledge we are in a strong El Nino state.

Get excited about the long range models showing some cold and snow.

Get shocked and saddened when models revert back to show an El Nino pattern.

[Catnip]

American forums:

Acknowledge we are in a strong El Nino state.

Get excited about the long range models showing some cold and snow.

Get shocked and saddened when models revert back to show an El Nino pattern.

Spot on Neetz!



I'm thinking we will may need to wait until Dec for some weather.

[Catnip]

The next 2 weeks is looking fairly dry on the 12z GFS.

Delayed ski season inevitable?

gfs.png

[Hawk]

The next 2 weeks is looking fairly dry on the 12z GFS.

Delayed ski season inevitable?

gfs.png

Yup looking like it..or maybe the beginning of the end of our winter? Nito said so..

[Weather101]

We also have to contend with a climate that seems to no longer cooperate. Long live the 50's and 60's.

That's climate change for ya unfortunately.

[Weather101]

American forums:

Acknowledge we are in a strong El Nino state.

Get excited about the long range models showing some cold and snow.

Get shocked and saddened when models revert back to show an El Nino pattern.

They literally do this yearly and somehow still get surprised

[wetcoast91]

They literally do this yearly and somehow still get surprised

It's hilarous when they continue to cherry pick the coldest El Nino winters while ignoring the fact it's a strongish El Nino with modern records suggesting it will likely lead to warmer and drier outcome. Snowless winter? Unlikely, but anything outside of day 5 should be taken with a grain of driveway salt.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It's hilarous when they continue to cherry pick the coldest El Nino winters while ignoring the fact it's a strongish El Nino with modern records suggesting it will likely lead to warmer and drier outcome. Snowless winter? Unlikely, but anything outside of day 5 should be taken with a grain on driveway salt.

At least it’s good for amusement. We will see how long it takes for me to get banned for failing to get aboard the snow train this year.

[Weather101]

It's hilarous when they continue to cherry pick the coldest El Nino winters while ignoring the fact it's a strongish El Nino with modern records suggesting it will likely lead to warmer and drier outcome. Snowless winter? Unlikely, but anything outside of day 5 should be taken with a grain on driveway salt.

Anything to fit their narrative, then they will fight each other for being too negative or too positive. The good ol pissing contest on the American forum.

[Weather101]

At least it’s good for amusement. We will see how long it takes for me to get banned for failing to get aboard the snow train this year.

They banned me 3 times lol will try to make another account.

[stuffradio]

I do like to wishcast cold/snow but I also see east coast mets who are climate experts bring up the ideas that despite us technically being in a strong El Nino, the atmosphere is not fully linked and behaving like the Strong El Nino. I do believe we have a shot at winter next month and there's no reason to be depressed about our snow prospects for December. I also think there's a realistic shot that we will be more warm/dry as we head into late Winter/Spring but again there's much to be decided before this will happen.

To Sum up:
- Good chance of at least cold next month, maybe some snow
- We'll probably be drier than normal
- Nino is forecast to begin fading in the next couple months as we head into Spring/Summer.

[Catnip]

#extrapolate

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[Canada Goose]

The next 2 weeks is looking fairly dry on the 12z GFS.

Delayed ski season inevitable?

This is what the long-term models show: a very dry winter. The signal is very strong.

[SouthSardiswx]

#extrapolate



1.png

What turns into a giant sock Cat in the hat. We reached a high of 9c today at the pond in south Sardis.

[AbbyJr]

I do like to wishcast cold/snow but I also see east coast mets who are climate experts bring up the ideas that despite us technically being in a strong El Nino, the atmosphere is not fully linked and behaving like the Strong El Nino. I do believe we have a shot at winter next month and there's no reason to be depressed about our snow prospects for December. I also think there's a realistic shot that we will be more warm/dry as we head into late Winter/Spring but again there's much to be decided before this will happen.

To Sum up:
- Good chance of at least cold next month, maybe some snow
- We'll probably be drier than normal
- Nino is forecast to begin fading in the next couple months as we head into Spring/Summer.

I'd be very surprised if we don't see a cold air outbreak next month with at least some snow. I could be wrong but I think December has a good chance to perform before January fails once again.