October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Mattman
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:19 pm :lol: l'm thankful you've survived all that Mattress man l would have been in a padded cell by now.
:lol: With three kids ages 5, 4, and 2, I've had my Clark Griswold moments the past couple of years on these trips to and from k-town. But it's getting easier. Having a DVD player in the minivan does wonders for one's sanity as it placates the little savages.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Mattman wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:25 pm :lol: With three kids ages 5, 4, and 2, I've had my Clark Griswold moments the past couple of years on these trips to and from k-town. But it's getting easier. Having a DVD player in the minivan does wonders for one's sanity as it placates the little savages.
Almost identical ages as mine! I have a 5, 4 and 9 month old. :shock:
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:13 pm Awesome windstorm in the central valley :roll: while l drive 60kmh down the road with my head stuck out the window.
What a sad sack E.C. has become at totally botching forecasts l grew up with reliable forecasts it was a fun hobby back then it still is but if it wasn't for this forum my interest would have died by now.
A lot you are excellent in your forecasting abilities and analysis so that's what l'm thankful for today on this Thanksgiving.
That and forum friends like skipper Gumpers, Ms. Sunshinecreeks and othersl can laugh and joke with. :thumbup:
It's currently 20c @ the pond in south Sardis and calm winds
:lol: :lol: I may have to try that :sard: No winds here either. I'm not complaining because the power is still on and I didn't have to cook over an open fire, which are banned again. They let us have two weeks of campfires and have changed their minds. :shrug:

Pretty clear sky, lots of stars and a chilly 9.2c in the Creek.

Feeling stuffed like the :humming: :lol:
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:22 pm Lovely shot there Ms. Overcookedturkeycreeks almost looks like those clouds could fit like a puzzle or a bunch of floating cotton balls that escaped. :shifty: :wtf:
Speaking of escaped cotton balls, have you seen paintings By Rob Gonsalves? Mind-bendingly fantastic! https://www.boredpanda.com/magic-realis ... gonsalves/

No overcooked turkey here tonight! :lol: :lol: Perfectly done home raised bird, delicious! Instant read thermometer and new temperature guidelines make it perfect (almost) every time.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 4:36 pm All ready for thanksgiving dinner. :D :wave:


132AF679-B57A-42AC-BCF0-F78C8C4DEB06.jpeg
Did s/he enjoy her turkey dinner?
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

A chilly 8.0c lowest low of October. 7.9c in Sechelt
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:23 am A chilly 8.0c lowest low of October. 7.9c in Sechelt
It's currently 12c @ the wind swepr pond in South Sardis. :wtf: :roll: the SWS was a disaster for the central valley the highest gust l saw was 30knh garbage cans didn't budge and trees still standing with branches attached still.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

I wonder if we can squeeze out two more dry weekends.

It seems the Ensembles/long range GFS are wanting to bring some wetter weather in the extended. Perhaps that is like watching them show cold 240+ hrs out in the winter and then warming as we get closer.

:dunno:

00z Euro 10 Day Precip
00z Euro.png
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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

6z GFS 10 Day Precip
6z gfs.png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:o :o :o :shock: :shock: :shock:

Saturday
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Sunday
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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:27 am I wonder if we can squeeze out two more dry weekends.

It seems the Ensembles/long range GFS are wanting to bring some wetter weather in the extended. Perhaps that is like watching them show cold 240+ hrs out in the winter and then warming as we get closer.

:dunno:
I'd say one more dry weekend for sure (unfortunately). The 00Z EPS has a lot more members showing precip by the time the second weekend comes around. Although if the timing doesn't move up, we know how that story ends.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

A sight for sore eyes on the 00Z EPS. The timing is also coming along as expected over the last few runs. We'll see.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:10 am A sight for sore eyes on the 00Z EPS. The timing is also coming along as expected over the last few runs. We'll see.
It's bound to happen eventually!

Looks like a signal for W/NW flow... cooler with moderate precip and less chance of warmer/wetter causing flooding with SW flow that typically results in an AR or two.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

12z Euro Precip
12z euro precip.png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Even on the 12Z Euro, you can see the ULL beginning to undercut the offshore ridge and we get into an active NW flow eventually.
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