December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Snowed_in wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:44 am Lol. What the eff happened. That's straight up ridiculous. The previous ensembles looked way better.
???
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Snowed_in wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:44 am Lol. What the eff happened. That's straight up ridiculous. The previous ensembles looked way better.
Major fluctuations with the temperatures can happen with tiny adjustments of the 500mb pattern. Pattern looks ripe with potential but how snowy it gets will be dependent on how amplified that NPAC ridge gets.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Havent we been chasing carrots for weeks now? There is almost always cold/snow in the long term lol. Snow is in there because there is always about a 10% chance we will see snow in the long term. :lol: :lol: :lol:
If we get to Jan 3 with nothing substantial, or nothing significant on the "radar", it will be another sad winter. Feb snows suck..because mostly it a slush festival. Time is ticking buttees.. :think: :think:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:13 am Havent we been chasing carrots for weeks now? There is almost always cold/snow in the long term lol. Snow is in there because there is always about a 10% chance we will see snow in the long term. :lol: :lol: :lol:
If we get to Jan 3 with nothing substantial, or nothing significant on the "radar", it will be another sad winter. Feb snows suck..because mostly it a slush festival. Time is ticking buttees.. :think: :think:
:dunno: Buttee.... models have been showing some consistency for a few days now. Usually when the EPS is consistent it’s a good sign. Example - FEB 2019.

Not to say it can’t all go to sh*t, but the signs are encouraging.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:03 am EPS la la for comparison sakes.

47D467B1-633A-489B-A6D1-AC1D1F7F7A35.png
0C9BADAF-9FD6-4EA5-9632-69A7DBCA08E3.png
Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:24 am Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?
This?
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-8700800.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:24 am Can you post the 10-15 day ensemble mean?
64BA5615-419C-4662-B1D9-324D9F45BF1E.png
AB8AA8F9-9B53-4855-BA0D-00953910790E.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

^both work. Thanks. :thumbup:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Split flow!
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:31 amSplit flow!
:bang:

Go split somewhere else!
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:31 am :bang:

Go split somewhere else!
Not so fast.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_37.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:33 am Not so fast.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_37.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png
That front is splitting.

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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Looks like the 12z is a bit quicker with the arrival of the “Troff” for next weekend.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:37 am That front is splitting.

Image
10 days out. Sure thing.
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Come next weekend it will be #dry

That’s how things have evolved lately.

:thumbup: :mrgreen:

:bang:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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