October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

What about the creeks in that area? Are they all dried up? Some creeks on the North shore are barely flowing, just a trickle. Worse than 2015.

I didn't see any creek on this trail.

[Canada Goose]

8-14 day looking better. "Near normal" precip for mid to late October should be a drought breaker.
814prcp.new-8.gif

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1 ... 5M5eT0rS4Q

[Mattman]

I'm thankful for this protracted fair weather because:
1. The kids of never been this healthy by Thanksgiving. It's usually a snot fest be now from daycare. They're outside a lot more than they would be this time of year;
2. It allows the workers on the Coq to be a bit more productive.
This occurred to me on our Thanksgiving excursion to see my folks in Kelowna.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 5M5eT0rS4Q

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 5M5eT0rS4Q

[Typeing3]

On this day in 2019, the morning temp at YVR was -0.7c!

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (6).png

[Typeing3]

20221010213213-666d6fd4e42016f3e34f9163ff426e5d7a27ddae.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Awesome windstorm in the central valley while l drive 60kmh down the road with my head stuck out the window.
What a sad sack E.C. has become at totally botching forecasts l grew up with reliable forecasts it was a fun hobby back then it still is but if it wasn't for this forum my interest would have waned by now.
A lot you are excellent at your forecasting abilities and analysis so that's what l'm thankful for today on this thanksgiving day.
That and forum friends like skipper Gumpers, Ms. Sunshinecreeks, Tman, and others l can laugh and joke with.
It's currently 20c @ the pond in south Sardis and calm winds

[Roberts Creeker]

A lovely 17.5 c in Sechelt, 19.5 c in Roberts Creek. Slightest hint of a breeze starting and the clouds are zipping by overhead. Still lots of blue but the most clouds I've seen in a while.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'm thankful for this protracted fair weather because:
1. The kids of never been this healthy by Thanksgiving. It's usually a snot fest be now from daycare. They're outside a lot more than they would be this time of year;
2. It allows the workers on the Coq to be a bit more productive.
This occurred to me on our Thanksgiving excursion to see my folks in Kelowna.

l'm thankful you've survived all that Mattress man l would have been in a padded cell by now.

[Typeing3]

2002!

"Wet" Coast Drought

British Columbia's dry season worked overtime this year. In Vancouver, only 105 mm of rain fell from June to October - barely a third of normal and the driest in 65 years of records. It was especially dry in October when a scant 18.3 mm of rain fell at the International Airport compared to its average 112.5 mm. Whistler and Port Hardy also had their driest October ever. In the interior, Vernon experienced its driest ever June-to-October rainfall with only 72 mm - the lowest since records began in 1900. Victoria International Airport also broke a record for least precipitation in a stretch from April to October.

The long dry spell was connected to a persistent high-pressure area over the province that blocked storms from reaching the coast. Further, a mysterious pool of warm water suddenly appeared over the northeastern Pacific Ocean in late summer about 1500 km from the Coast. The resulting lack of rain led to concerns about water levels in several areas of BC, including Vancouver. By early November, reservoirs there fell to about 25% of capacity and were dropping at a rate of 1% per day. The season's salmon run was also threatened as streams over Southern Vancouver Island went dry.

Relief came in early November, when fall storms lashed the coastal region but little moisture fell elsewhere. Heavy rains flooded basements in Vancouver and the city's airport reported almost a month's worth of rain - 147 mm in 17 consecutive days. Unfortunately, the rains ended as quickly as they began, and what was looking like the first wet month in a long time ended up with below-normal rainfall totals. The last two weeks of November, traditionally the wettest two weeks of the year, had no moisture at all. In the interior, things were no better. Kelowna received less than 50% of its normal precipitation in November and, for the first time ever, no snow.

By early December, with rainfall and reservoirs at historic lows, officials in Victoria raised the possibility of winter outdoor watering restrictions - a first! The region's main water supply at Sooke was short three billion gallons and losing ground at 18 million gallons a day. Pacific Coast water managers continue to worry as the last three years have been among the nine driest over 55 years of records, with some 15% less precipitation. Other sectors that depend on a stable amount of water, including forestry, agriculture, sport and commercial fishing, hydro power, and recreation and tourism are also feeling the pinch.

Finally, on December 10, the rains came! A series of intense Pacific storms began pummeling the west coast with extreme winds and rain. The storms curved northward to the Gulf of Alaska, clipping and occasionally crossing the northern BC Coastline. One storm packed winds in excess of 100 km/h at Point Atkinson and 130 km/h on the outer coast of Vancouver Island, prompting forecasters to issue a rare warning for hurricane-force winds in the Strait of Georgia. Even the relatively sheltered Powell River Airport recorded a powerful gust of 111 km/h.

Source: https://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/defa ... A416A-1#t7

[SouthSardiswx]

A lovely 17.5 c in Sechelt, 19.5 c in Roberts Creek. Slightest hint of a breeze starting and the clouds are zipping by overhead. Still lots of blue but the most clouds I've seen in a while.

Lovely shot there Ms. Overcookedturkeycreeks almost looks like those clouds could fit like a puzzle or a bunch of floating cotton balls that escaped.

[AbbyJr]

All ready for thanksgiving dinner.

132AF679-B57A-42AC-BCF0-F78C8C4DEB06.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

All ready for thanksgiving dinner.


132AF679-B57A-42AC-BCF0-F78C8C4DEB06.jpeg

Don't forget Jr. man eat the pea soup before it eats you.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... cSSTJpRJJQ