November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 5:22 am Yup… heavy rain… with cold in behind… precip tapers off and we just get a dry blast…

:anus:

Right Neetz?
Hopefully with some snow during the transition then there’s often a chance for something to spin up once the outflow is interacting with the warm sea water.

Or maybe I should start predicting a dry blast, given how well it worked at making a big dump of snow manifest last December.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

stuffradio wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:12 am We're only 18 days away from meteorological winter.
Great :clap: and then it's all over till next winter.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

33 years since the devastating November 1990 rain storm, when Sumas Lake (temporarily) returned. As we all know this would occur again in November 2021 during another devastating storm!

Image
Image


For more info, see here: https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?t=1441
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:18 am Great :clap: and then it's all over till next winter.
Well I was thinking that then we would look forward to cherry blossoms ;)
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Sneak peak of the 12Z Euro… big collapse incoming. :bang: :bang: :bang:
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:55 am Sneak peak of the 12Z Euro… big collapse incoming. :bang: :bang: :bang:
#TeamFebruary

Someone is bringing up Dec 1972 as an analog for next month.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

stuffradio wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 11:18 am #TeamFebruary

Someone is bringing up Dec 1972 as an analog for next month.
December 1972 cold snap stats

YVR (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 5.0c/-0.6c/trace
Dec 3: 1.1c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 4: -1.1c/-10.0c/0cm
Dec 5: 0.0c/-5.6c/trace
Dec 6: -1.1c/-8.3c/0cm
Dec 7: -3.9c/-10.6c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.3c/-11.1c/0.3cm
Dec 9: 0.0c/-8.3c/2.0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-10.6c/trace
Dec 11: -1.1c/-2.8c/7.1cm
Dec 12: 0.6c/-10.6c/trace
Dec 13: 0.6c/-5.0c/5.3cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-8.9c/trace


Port Coquitlam (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 2.2c/-3.9c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-7.8c/0cm
Dec 4: 1.1c/-12.8c/2.5cm
Dec 5: -1.1c/-12.2c/0cm
Dec 6: -1.7c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 7: -2.8c/-15.0c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-15.6c/0.8cm
Dec 9: 0.0c/-8.9c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-13.9c/trace
Dec 11: -1.1c/-10.6c/9.7cm
Dec 12: 2.2c/-13.9c/2.5cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/8.3c/10.4cm
Dec 14: 2.2c/-8.3c/0cm


Pitt Meadows (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 2.2c/-2.2c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-2.8c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-10.6c/0cm
Dec 5: 0.0c/-6.7c/0cm
Dec 6: -2.2c/-5.0c/0cm
Dec 7: -2.8c/-12.2c/0cm
Dec 8: -4.4c/-14.4c/1.3cm
Dec 9: -1.1c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-13.3c/0cm
Dec 11: 0.0c/-3.9c/5.1cm
Dec 12: 0.6c/-13.9c/2.5cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/-8.9c/12.7cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-3.3c/0cm


Surrey Newton (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 0.0c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-8.9c/trace
Dec 5: -1.1c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 6: -2.8c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 7: -4.4c/-16.7c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-12.8c/2.3cm
Dec 9: -1.1c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.8c/-11.1c/trace
Dec 11: -1.7c/-3.3c/12.7cm
Dec 12: 1.7c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/-6.7c/4.6cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-6.7c/trace


YXX (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 3.9c/-2.8c/0.8cm
Dec 3: -2.2c/-6.1c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-7.8c/0cm
Dec 5: -3.3c/-5.6c/trace
Dec 6: -4.4c/-7.2c/0cm
Dec 7: -5.0c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-10.0c/0cm
Dec 9: -0.6c/-11.1c/0.5cm
Dec 10: -1.1c/-13.3c/0cm
Dec 11: -1.7c/-6.7c/10.2cm
Dec 12: 0.0c/-9.4c/trace
Dec 13: -1.7c/-8.9c/8.9cm
Dec 14: 0.6c/-7.2c/trace
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-13.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-13T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-13T1.png



-------------------------------------------
20231113211504-2a44c61f2532a5276b7a57a03b95b589b88f12a4.png
20231113211445-908535b5b0013cea8e37daa14ae6324be597d5df.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:11 pm December 1972 cold snap stats

YVR (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 5.0c/-0.6c/trace
Dec 3: 1.1c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 4: -1.1c/-10.0c/0cm
Dec 5: 0.0c/-5.6c/trace
Dec 6: -1.1c/-8.3c/0cm
Dec 7: -3.9c/-10.6c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.3c/-11.1c/0.3cm
Dec 9: 0.0c/-8.3c/2.0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-10.6c/trace
Dec 11: -1.1c/-2.8c/7.1cm
Dec 12: 0.6c/-10.6c/trace
Dec 13: 0.6c/-5.0c/5.3cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-8.9c/trace


Port Coquitlam (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 2.2c/-3.9c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-7.8c/0cm
Dec 4: 1.1c/-12.8c/2.5cm
Dec 5: -1.1c/-12.2c/0cm
Dec 6: -1.7c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 7: -2.8c/-15.0c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-15.6c/0.8cm
Dec 9: 0.0c/-8.9c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-13.9c/trace
Dec 11: -1.1c/-10.6c/9.7cm
Dec 12: 2.2c/-13.9c/2.5cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/8.3c/10.4cm
Dec 14: 2.2c/-8.3c/0cm


Pitt Meadows (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 2.2c/-2.2c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-2.8c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-10.6c/0cm
Dec 5: 0.0c/-6.7c/0cm
Dec 6: -2.2c/-5.0c/0cm
Dec 7: -2.8c/-12.2c/0cm
Dec 8: -4.4c/-14.4c/1.3cm
Dec 9: -1.1c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.2c/-13.3c/0cm
Dec 11: 0.0c/-3.9c/5.1cm
Dec 12: 0.6c/-13.9c/2.5cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/-8.9c/12.7cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-3.3c/0cm


Surrey Newton (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 0.0c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 3: 0.0c/-4.4c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-8.9c/trace
Dec 5: -1.1c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 6: -2.8c/-5.6c/0cm
Dec 7: -4.4c/-16.7c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-12.8c/2.3cm
Dec 9: -1.1c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 10: -2.8c/-11.1c/trace
Dec 11: -1.7c/-3.3c/12.7cm
Dec 12: 1.7c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 13: -1.1c/-6.7c/4.6cm
Dec 14: 1.1c/-6.7c/trace


YXX (high/low/snow)
Dec 2: 3.9c/-2.8c/0.8cm
Dec 3: -2.2c/-6.1c/0cm
Dec 4: -2.2c/-7.8c/0cm
Dec 5: -3.3c/-5.6c/trace
Dec 6: -4.4c/-7.2c/0cm
Dec 7: -5.0c/-9.4c/0cm
Dec 8: -3.9c/-10.0c/0cm
Dec 9: -0.6c/-11.1c/0.5cm
Dec 10: -1.1c/-13.3c/0cm
Dec 11: -1.7c/-6.7c/10.2cm
Dec 12: 0.0c/-9.4c/trace
Dec 13: -1.7c/-8.9c/8.9cm
Dec 14: 0.6c/-7.2c/trace
Looks cold and dry.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

stuffradio wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:08 pm Looks cold and dry.
Was very persistently cold though. Hard to find many other two-week periods in December in recorded history with a lower average temperature.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

The early-mid December 1972 cold snap was followed by a very significant prolonged rain storm.
Between 4 p.m. on December 15-4 a.m. on December 18, Vancouver recorded 2.39 in. (60.7 mm) of rain. Alta Lake and Tofino reported more than 6 in. (15 cm). Revelstoke and Blue River recorded 1 ft. (30 cm) and 13 in. (32.5 cm) of snow, respectively. The heavy precipitation, some of it in snow, occurred across southern British Columbia.

The rainstorm, which occurred towards the end of a two-week warm and very wet period caused extensive flooding of basements in greater Vancouver.

Vancouver International Airport set two monthly records: a rainfall of 11.34 in. (288.0 mm), the average for December being 5.96 in. (151.4 mm); and total precipitation of 11.82 in. (300.2 mm), the average for December being 5.96 in. (151.4 mm); and total precipitation of 11.82 in. (300.2 mm), the average for December being 6.51 in. (165.4 mm).

Vancouver PMO established corresponding records with 16.06 in. (407.9 mm); average for December 8.70 in. (221.0mm), and 16.84 in. (427.7mm), respectively.

Overnight December 15-16 in Vancouver, 1.26 in. (32.0 mm) of rain melted about 6 in. (15 cm) of snow accumulated during the previous 10 days. City work crews responded to more than 50 distress calls following a rainfall of 1.20 in. (30.5 mm) overnight December 15-16. Most of the flooding resulted from partly melted snow blocking highway drains. Delta reported isolated cases of flooding.
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142301.png
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142326.png


Source: https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_sa ... south2.pdf
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:25 pm The early-mid December 1972 cold snap was followed by a very significant prolonged rain storm.


Screenshot 2023-11-13 142301.png
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142326.png



Source: https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_sa ... south2.pdf
Continued:
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142628.png
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142650.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

I just finished putting up our Christmas lights. Now, it can snow. :flakey:
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Flakey »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:27 pm Continued:

Screenshot 2023-11-13 142628.png
Screenshot 2023-11-13 142650.png
I was eight at the time and we lived in an old house with probably very little insulation in the attic so huge icicles hanging from the roof. Also a very low area of Surrey so remember the flooding also.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Flakey wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:51 pm I was eight at the time and we lived in an old house with probably very little insulation in the attic so huge icicles hanging from the roof. Also a very low area of Surrey so remember the flooding also.
Surrey faced some of the worst impacts from the storm!
The storm caused widespread flooding and landslides in the greater Vancouver area. Surrey reported 700 flood calls and Chilliwack 500. Hardest hit was Surrey, where a combination of heavy rainfall and high tides broke two sections of the Nicomekl River dikes east of King George Highway on December 26.

At one time during the night of December 26, it was feared that some families would have to be evacuated from an area between 184th and 192nd streets, where the river runs north to south. It was on this stretch that the dikes broke the night before. A feared combination of a 15.6ft. (4.7 m) high tide and more heavy rain and wind did not materialize. Municipal crews built a temporary 4-ft. (1.2 m) gravel dike around the breaks, with weak spots on either side sandbagged.

Farmers near the mouth of the river at Mud Bay requested sandbags to strengthen the dikes there. Here, the problems were caused by runoff rather than by the river.

Surrey mayor Bill Vander Zalm estimated damage to land, sewers, roads and water supplies at “millions of dollars.” He estimated the municipality’s own damage bill at $500,000. Vander Zalm called for immediate provincial aid and a quick start on the construction on a better dyking system for the Nicomekl and Serpentine rivers. Vander Zalm noted he was going to ask the provincial government “to stop making studies of the situation and get on with repairs. We are just having disaster after disaster. The water from the hills is increasing year after year and the dikes are just no good anymore.”

Source: https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_sa ... south2.pdf
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