October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

SFU special?

Thats a bit of a stretch..but it has happened before in late October

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20231020132840-6144afe2126ae33c6cd1685f2d01db4d6e42e02b.png

20231020132822-a95bf75d508a1d36df756fea6819d6f11de08cc8.png

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


00z GEFS (GFS ensembles)

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

00z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)

eps_apcpn_wus_60.png

00z GEPS (GEM ensembles)

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

[SouthSardiswx]

If you want snow go east AI Canada has Calgary receiving snow for a couple of day's early next week.
Fort St. John drops to -16c on Monday night. not bad.
GFS is the coldest model so l guess that's the outlier.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

2015-16

Or maybe 1991-92.

[Catnip]

2015-16

But I've already stocked up on sand and salt!

[Nordelian]

Historically El Nino has its biggest influence in the second half of winter into spring. So I am not surprised to see indications of earlier cold shots now before the torch settles in for January

[AbbyJr]

Historically El Nino has its biggest influence in the second half of winter into spring. So I am not surprised to see indications of earlier cold shots now before the torch settles in for January

Also, we are coming off a rare triple dip La Niña. It will take time for the atmosphere to adjust. Given that as well as the fact that we are still in a strongly -PDO cycle, I think there is still good potential for cold and snow late November or December. January is possible but less likely.

[Glacier]

October is still dry. Only 5.4 mm so far. Currently, the past year is the 4th driest on record. And that's coming 2 years after the 2nd driest year on record...

pentprecip4.png

[tyweather]

Looking like winter, N Cascade forecast:

Monday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level near 5000 feet.
Monday Night Rain and snow likely. Snow level near 4000 feet.
Tuesday - Rain and snow likely. Snow level near 3500 feet.
Tuesday Night - Rain and snow likely. Snow level near 3500 feet.
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level near 3000 feet.
Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level near 3000 feet.
Thursday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level near 2500 feet.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

October is still dry. Only 5.4 mm so far. Currently, the past year is the 4th driest on record. And that's coming 2 years after the 2nd driest year on record...

pentprecip4.png

Yikes! YVR is at 100.1 mm for the month, and 150.1 mm IMBY.

But it is well-known that atmospheric rivers are quite shallow and thus the mountains block them from reaching further east.

[Typeing3]

Yikes! YVR is at 100.1 mm for the month, and 150.1 mm IMBY.

But it is well-known that atmospheric rivers are quite shallow and thus the mountains block them from reaching further east.

204.3mm thus far in October, as measured at the rain gauge in northeast Coquitlam.

[Hawk]

Also, we are coming off a rare triple dip La Niña. It will take time for the atmosphere to adjust. Given that as well as the fact that we are still in a strongly -PDO cycle, I think there is still good potential for cold and snow late November or December. January is possible but less likely.

#teamJr.2024

[SouthSardiswx]

We reached a high of 18c @ the pond in south Sardis today with some filtered sunshine.

[Hawk]

Happy weekend. Enjoy the troffing next week and first significant snow visible on the local Peaks