January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

pna.png

[Typeing3]

pna.png

Looks decent.

Last time we had an arctic blast + significant snows during the last third of January was way back in 1996 so we're definitely well overdue for something.

[AbbyJr]

Looks decent.

Last time we had an arctic blast + significant snows during the last third of January was way back in 1996 so we're definitely well overdue for something.

Honestly a January 1996 redux is still in reach even in our changing climate.

To be honest, it wasn't much different than December 2016, though I think it got a bit colder one day. It was also snowier, at least for Abbotsford. But it was mostly just an extended chilly period with low elevation snows. YXX had 30cm+ snow on the ground for 5 days in a row and recorded a monthly total of 67.3cm.

So it was essentially a snowier version of December 2016 and an extended version of February 2017 give or take.

[Typeing3]

Honestly a January 1996 redux is still in reach even in our changing climate.

To be honest, it wasn't much different than December 2016, though I think it got a bit colder one day. It was also snowier, at least for Abbotsford. But it was mostly just an extended chilly period with low elevation snows. YXX had 30cm+ snow on the ground for 5 days in a row and recorded a monthly total of 67.3cm.

So it was essentially a snowier version of December 2016 and an extended version of February 2017 give or take.

December 2016 was essentially a month long chilly spell with two separate backdoor arctic blasts. Offshore flow dominated and even when it "warmed", it was mostly chilly NW flow.

The Jan '96 event was much shorter in duration. Arctic air settled into the interior but just trickled out to the coast (essentially stalled in the fraser valley for days) as we saw some cold N/NW flow off the ocean from the 19th through the 27th. Lots of wet snowfalls toward the coast with higher elevations and inland seeing significant accumulations.

The real arctic air didn't arrive till late evening on the 27th. Cold air blasted out to the coast directly from the north and interior. Abbotsford recorded a -7.7c/-12.7c day on the 29th. None of the brushes we had with arctic air during winter '16/17 were that significant.

[Typeing3]

No signs of cold air on the 18z ensembles.

[Roberts Creeker]

Wind Warning for the Sunshine Coast...at least most of my ground is so waterlogged it's too heavy to blow away. It was windy overnight too.

[Storm]

With all due respect, I never claimed to measure up to a guy who has a Phd and 30 years of expertise.

Uh.

[AbbyJr]

December 2016 was essentially a month long chilly spell with two separate backdoor arctic blasts. Offshore flow dominated and even when it "warmed", it was mostly chilly NW flow.

The Jan '96 event was much shorter in duration. Arctic air settled into the interior but just trickled out to the coast (essentially stalled in the fraser valley for days) as we saw some cold N/NW flow off the ocean from the 19th through the 27th. Lots of wet snowfalls toward the coast with higher elevations and inland seeing significant accumulations.

The real arctic air didn't arrive till late evening on the 27th. Cold air blasted out to the coast directly from the north and interior. Abbotsford recorded a -7.7c/-12.7c day on the 29th. None of the brushes we had with arctic air during winter '16/17 were that significant.

The January 1996 event was snowier for Abbotsford and had a real arctic blast, so I will definitely take that one over December 2016 any day.

I wouldn't say no to both either.

[AbbyJr]

EPS and GEFS trending very identical.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png

[Catnip]

No signs of cold air on the 18z ensembles.

#retro

GEFS Ensembles North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

[Catnip]

EPS and GEFS trending very identical.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png

Yup.... good sign JR!

[Radar]

F4510C35-E14C-4626-8962-515CAF6B25A5.jpeg

Have you started gathering two of every animal?

[Bonovox]

I think it is quite likely we're going to see the jet retract and some positive heights build in the NPAC by the end of the month. No idea if everything else will come together, but we're back in the game now.

[Roberts Creeker]

Looks like quite the storm coming in tomorrow...only sailings to Vancouver Island are affected. Our Sunshine Coast runs are sailing as scheduled.

[AbbyJr]

Yup.... good sign JR!

The SSW hasn't even peaked yet and we are already seeing positive signs in the models. I'm very interested in what they will show next weekend.