October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Saw something similar on the AF, so I created a thread where we can list our top personal or historical winter events: http://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=111&t=631

[Hawk]

Well I somewhat agree..but think the next significant trof and cold comes around the end of this month or start of November. Where it hits exactly I dunno..but it will be Western NA..possibly low snow levels locally..maybe some wet snow even..

[SouthSardiswx]

Just saw this https://mynorthwest.com/1538194/dice-ma ... n-seattle/

Interesting indeed l agree for some reason.

[SouthSardiswx]

Skill and size upgrades with the new players and continued growth with their young players will be the keys to unlock the current pattern.

I guess it's a little slow on the weather front , my overnight low is back to above 10° , 11.1°.

Well most hockey pundits think we are locked in this pattern for sometime now, so it maybe a long cold winter.

[SouthSardiswx]

Well I somewhat agree..but think the next significant trof and cold comes around the end of this month or start of November. Where it hits exactly I dunno..but it will be Western NA..possibly low snow levels locally..maybe some wet snow even..

Like 84 coldest Halloween l can remember.

[Typeing3]

Saw something similar on the AF, so I created a thread where we can list our top personal or historical winter events:

I'll post what was posted on the thread here as well. Feel free to add your own here; eventually we can make a top 10 on consensus.

From a historical perspective, my top 5 would be...

1: Jan 20th-Feb 10th, 1893. Unfortunately, not too much data exists for this period in history, as even though there were quite a few stations by then, a gap in data occurred during this period. Nevertheless, the info from this event is based off two long running stations on the south coast; Agassiz and Esquimalt. During this event, temperatures dipped below freezing on the 25th and remained there until the 5th at Esquimalt and the 9th at Agassiz, a spell of 11 or 15 days. What is remarkable about this event was extreme cold coupled with extreme snowfall. On the 29th at Esquimalt, snow began falling as temps began dipping from already moderately cold levels of around -4C. Over the next five days, 100cm fell. This was coupled with very cold temperatures that dipped to -18.9C on the 31st, after a high of -12.2C with 15.2cm of snow. At Agassiz, temps were brutally cold during the same period; naturally less snow fell (56cm), but that was still with temperatures which dipped to an astonishing -25C on the 31st. Even more astonishing was the high on the 3rd of Feb...-19.4C! The following day, around 46cm of snow fell coupled with temps hovering around -18C the entire day.

2: January 10th-25th, 1935. Not one of the most well known events in our history, but certainly one of the most significant. The first snows that fell on the 10th totaled 10-20cm and were followed by a brief warmup over the following few days however it would not last. Another blast of snow followed on the 15th and 16th with similar totals of 10-20cm. Over the next three days, temperatures plunged, dipping to -16C in Vancouver. On the 20th and 21st, snow fell, totaling 40-70cm over two days. This was followed by an ice storm which resulted in up to 100mm of ice into the fraser valley. The AR event which occurred soon after was even more significant....200-400mm in just four days.

3: December 19th-30th, 1996. One of the snowiest stretches in recorded history for many areas on the south coast. The first snowfall on the 19th was quite wet, limiting accumulations to around 10cm. The next few days featured a warmup with rain showers. However, arctic air wasn't far away as on the evening of the 22nd, temperatures dipped and by the 23rd, nearly 20cm had fallen. The next few days were clear and cold with temps dipping into the negative double digits on christmas day. Another arctic front came baraling down from the north late on the 27th just as snow was beginning to fall. The coldest day of the month was on the 28th, when temps struggled to hit -7C. Conditions rapidly deteriorated on the 28th and heavy snow began to fall; this continued unabated until the night of the 29th when the snow turned to freezing rain. Finally, on the 30th, temps warmed and rain began to fall. Fortunately this was not followed by an intense AR event like 1935.

4: January 1950. The coldest month on record for most locations where records date back to the late 1890s. No month in this ~130 year timeframe has even come close to matching Jan 1950 record setting cold anomalies. The average high/low at YVR during the entire month was roughly -3C/-10C, which made for a mean temp of about -6.5C. Around 100cm of snow fell at most locations during the month; quite significant but nothing too unusual as it was the sheer unrelenting cold which made this month special. Three distinct arctic blasts visited the south coast over the duration of the month, each dropping mean temps below -10C for at least a few days at most locations. An extreme low of -17.8C at YVR occurred on the 14th.

5: January-February 10th 1916. A special ~40 day stretch for the entirety of the south coast; no more so than for the island. January 1916 was very cold, coming close to January 1950 in terms of numbers. For most on the mainland, January 1916 dropped around 50-100cm of snow with the story mostly being on the persistence of cold. However, on the south island, snow was also dispersed throughout the month, but snow totals reached closer to 200cm. Marginally warmer temperatures and the location relative to the stormtrack played a big role in the south island receiving so much snow. The largest storms, on the 1st/2nd of Feb and the 6th/7th, dropped an insane amount of snow on all locales. 60cm in Agassiz and 75cm in Victoria; no storm dropped more snow on the city in such a short period until the blizzard of 1996.

Honourary mentions:
January 10-28th, 1954.
January 11-15th, 1971.
December 15th-January 10th, 1990/91.
December 13th-January 5th, 2008/09.

[Lisa0527]

Like 84 coldest Halloween l can remember.

My mom used to talk about a Halloween with snow on the ground. In Tsawwassen, maybe 1971/72?

[Typeing3]

My mom used to talk about a Halloween with snow on the ground. In Tsawwassen, maybe 1971/72?

1971. Very cold last week of October with flurries on a few days. Preceded the third snowiest December on record at YVR. January was cold and snowy as well

[Typeing3]

Next Tuesday looks chilly!

[Typeing3]

Perhaps a freeze Wednesday morning?

[Forrest Gump]

Perhaps a freeze Wednesday morning?

Doubt if I'll get below 5° , maybe burns bog.

[SouthSardiswx]

Doubt if I'll get below 5° , maybe burns bog.

It could out here in Johnny land, where is he these day's we was very active during the summer but now has disappeared.

[Hawk]

I remember Oct 84 well. Snowed on the 30th? I was with butties in MRidge north east area..clear and chilly to start the evening..watched a mass of white clouds descend from the north..then started snowing heavily..temp around 1-2c. Dropped about 3 to 4 cm if I recall but was stoned lol.

[Typeing3]

Coldest day of the season so far...high of only 11.2C.

[Hawk]

Coldest day of the season so far...high of only 11.2C.

Yup low level NE flow with trof dropping in from the NW..nice set up. Solid.