January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Extended GEFS for the latter part of Jan/Feb:

02C455D0-D7B9-4982-938E-9F0E14C3DDB8.png

7996775C-CEB6-4A08-AD22-58DC2C170C9B.png

3BB077C2-830C-442E-987F-B6D1DB159B22.png

[Catnip]

At the beginning of the month a lot of the longer range models were showing the possibility of colder weather for the beginning of Jan. I guess we can now assume that they will be incorrect. Not sure how much we can trust what they say for the end of Jan/Feb.

Models aside, it seems Feb has been the one month that actually delivers something lately.

[Forrest Gump]

https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/stat ... 80104?s=21

2020 had record cold and snow? Coulda fooled me.

[Abby_wx]

2020 had record cold and snow? Coulda fooled me.

Nothing near a record in Metro Vancouver, but there's probably at least one cold or snowfall record set somewhere in BC most years. The headline is pretty misleading, though.

[PortKells]

C522C4AC-DB22-4357-B4BC-9F2863851C51.png

Sigh. That literally hasn't changed since December 1st or so. But maybe this time.

[SouthSardiswx]

Happy New Year! Days are getting longer and we're now in the Winter season. How many blizzards and snowstorms will we get this month, f any? We'll see!

Wait! did l sleep through New Years eve.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

At this stage, I’m sort of rooting for the cold snap to come in February or late January, simply for the trolling possibilities in the AF.

[Monty]

At the beginning of the month a lot of the longer range models were showing the possibility of colder weather for the beginning of Jan. I guess we can now assume that they will be incorrect. Not sure how much we can trust what they say for the end of Jan/Feb.

Models aside, it seems Feb has been the one month that actually delivers something lately.

I find those Uber long range models lean pretty heavily on Enso climatology. I think they bust at a higher rate when the weather doesn’t follow that script too closely

[wetcoast91]

At this stage, I’m sort of rooting for the cold snap to come in February or late January, simply for the trolling possibilities in the AF.

Rooting for a cold snap for Skagit northward and 50F rain south of there for the entire JFM period. Just want to see them lose their minds.

[Typeing3]

Nothing near a record in Metro Vancouver, but there's probably at least one cold or snowfall record set somewhere in BC most years. The headline is pretty misleading, though.

Yep...mostly just media sensationalism as usual.

[John]

Yep...mostly just media sensationalism as usual.

Happy new year you’ll

[John]

Raining

[Roberts Creeker]

Where's my rain? Maybe there won't be much as forecasted in the coming week.

That's what I've been wondering but I hear it now and it's on the radar in glorious green and yellows. EC still has a rainfall warning up for us.

[tyweather]

Agreed. Michael Ventrice discussed this in his presentation. Did you see the video I posted last night?

I saw it but it looks like the Siberian SSW's do not benefit N America that much.

[AbbyJr]

I saw it but it looks like the Siberian SSW's do not benefit N America that much.

Actually, Michael showed evidence that Siberian SSW's actually benefit N America much more than North Atlantic ones.