January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Thanks for posting guys, saves me going to the AF to check out the maps.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Haha, by hour 180 the Euro starts looking like the GFS.


:dunno:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Day 8

00z ECMWF
ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
00Z GEM
gem_z500a_namer_33.png
00Z GFS
gfs_z500a_namer_33.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

This is where the GEM begins to be drastically different than both the Euro and GFS.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Weatherpro alert! Nito not invited.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The Euro is still better than the GFS. That's pretty close to being great.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:55 pm The Euro is still better than the GFS. That's pretty close to being great.
So close....
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by WeatherPro »

Just a quick drop by,

Things are still on track. Look for a cooling trend to start by this Wed. Things will slowly cool down as we head into next weekend which at that point perhaps Sunday we will see the actual cold temps hit the coast. As the week goes on from there, things are looking chilly for the foreseeable future.

The big question. When will it snow?

Possible on Saturday. For now it's a bit to early as things will change especially as the models get a better grip on any lows that might crop up. I'm hoping on some coastal sliders. Wondering about the outflow in Hope/Chilliwack/Abbostford. Right now it looks like it will be light to moderate.

This will be the first real arctic air to enter BC this season. Once it gets established better I think we will see some decent lows in the interior.

I'm also seeing east Vancouver Island getting some nice flurries once the outflow kicks in.

This needs to freeze the ground so we have temps at or below 0 so if it does snow it won't melt away or have trouble sticking when it first starts. This is important. Would be nice to see some ice form on pooled water

Keeping an eye on this!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Forrest Gump wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:48 pm Weatherpro alert! Nito not invited.
He’s allowed Gumps as long as somebody duct tapes his fingers. :lol:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The Euro did show some snow at the very end. :shock:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John seems to be mysteriously missing. :o
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Thanks WP what can you tell those that aren't buying into this cold on the way?
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:16 pm Thanks WP what can you tell those that aren't buying into this cold on the way?
Are you asking for a friend?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Forrest Gump wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:19 pm Are you asking for a friend?
Yup.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

WeatherPro wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:04 pm Just a quick drop by,

Things are still on track. Look for a cooling trend to start by this Wed. Things will slowly cool down as we head into next weekend which at that point perhaps Sunday we will see the actual cold temps hit the coast. As the week goes on from there, things are looking chilly for the foreseeable future.

The big question. When will it snow?

Possible on Saturday. For now it's a bit to early as things will change especially as the models get a better grip on any lows that might crop up. I'm hoping on some coastal sliders. Wondering about the outflow in Hope/Chilliwack/Abbostford. Right now it looks like it will be light to moderate.

This will be the first real arctic air to enter BC this season. Once it gets established better I think we will see some decent lows in the interior.

I'm also seeing east Vancouver Island getting some nice flurries once the outflow kicks in.

This needs to freeze the ground so we have temps at or below 0 so if it does snow it won't melt away or have trouble sticking when it first starts. This is important. Would be nice to see some ice form on pooled water

Keeping an eye on this!
I have always thought this “needs to freeze the ground before the snow hits or it won’t stick” idea to be pretty overrated! Unless we are just talking scattered light flurries. Take December this year. We hadn’t had a freeze in weeks and it was 10 degrees the day before it started snowing. And we still accumulated more than 20cm of snow that stuck on the ground for almost 10 days.
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