January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Oh common! Siberian Blast ❄️ is coming. Let’s GO!

Honestly, IMO, the SSW is going to be a big shake up. Impossible to say where the core of the arctic cold will end up.

It stopped raining. I see the sun

Agreed. I think the worst case scenario is a backdoor arctic blast. But I am starting to feel a February 2019 redux may be in store.

Still pouring rain here. 26.6 mm for the day so far.

[Shar]

Wow what a score!

The score continues, lighter and heavier snow off and on all day. Still only about 6 cm its heavy and compacting. We have only made it up to 0.2c.

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-9761600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9761600.png

The other ensembles are fairly close to these as well.

[Bonovox]

This is the run to run change in heights on the EPS. It clearly shows a trend towards lowering heights over Western NA and rising heights over the NPAC. Take it for what it is.

[Bonovox]

We only began studying SSW's in the past 15 years and impacts on climates and weather patterns. I have seen people suggesting a SSW will cause a sudden flip in the pattern and to toss out model run showing otherwise. Truth be told...we dont know. No one knows. Like the impact of low solar activity. People have their own theories but the theories are 50/50 at best.

With all due respect, I'll take Ventrice over the NFS as a subject matter expert on the topic.

[Catnip]

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom.gif

[PortKells]

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom.gif

Those are pretty good. Its actually kind of the pattern progression that's been predicted for a long time but its starting to move up a bit in timing.

[Typeing3]

The EPS is not bad.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png

Backdoor!

[AbbyJr]

Backdoor!

Don't worry, it'll turn continental.

[Hawk]

It only makes sense that the anus of Canada gets backdoor blasts on a regular basis ...centered in the cow manure Stinky city of Annusiz, right at Annus Road and Hwy #1. I drive through there often and can smell the gases

[Typeing3]

Don't worry, it'll turn continental.

Backdoor blasts are continental too. Setup just doesn't favour northern areas of the PNW as much as southern regions. Think back to Dec 2013...Vancouver dropped to -10c and Eugene, Oregon hit -23c.

[AbbyJr]

Backdoor blasts are continental too. Setup just doesn't favour northern areas of the PNW as much as southern regions. Think back to Dec 2013...Vancouver dropped to -10c and Eugene, Oregon hit -23c.

I did not know that. Thanks for the explanation.

[tyweather]

Looks like the 18z could suggest displacement of the polar vortex from Alaska towards the SE with a NPAC ridge.

[wetcoast91]

With all due respect, I'll take Ventrice over the NFS as a subject matter expert on the topic.

With all due respect, I never claimed to measure up to a guy who has a Phd and 30 years of expertise.

[AbbyJr]

cfs-daily-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2137600.png

cfs-daily-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-2137600.png