November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

44.8 mm in Coquitlam.

[Storm]

As was predicted for this time:
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

Screenshot_20211127-200005_MyRadar.jpg

[Typeing3]

Screenshot_20211127-200005_MyRadar.jpg

Not good.

Here's what the latest HRRR is predicting until noon tomorrow.

hrrr_apcpn_nwus_18.png

[Typeing3]

A look back: 1996 ‘Snow Storm of the Century’ hits Vancouver and Victoria

https://globalnews.ca/video/rd/84077165 ... wsource=cl

The 2016-17 'Salt Crisis of the Century' was also a notable event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QLSViytsl0

[AbbyJr]

Tuesday's Atmospheric River:

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png

[Typeing3]

Tuesday's Atmospheric River:

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png

Looks like the central coast, north/west island and the sunshine coast will take the brunt of that storm.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_71.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Tuesday's Atmospheric River:

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8349200.png

Monty get's nailed we may be spared somewhat Jr. man but still the damage is done.

[AbbyJr]

Looks like the central coast, north/west island and the sunshine coast will take the brunt of that storm.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_71.png

Based on that run and model. There is still much uncertainty on the exact trajectory of the Atmospheric River. Time will tell but hopefully the Fraser Valley does not take a direct hit, like some runs were showing. Tonights 00Z ICON shows around 70 mm for Abbotsford on Tuesday.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS still looks fairly chilly Thursday into next weekend. Maybe some flurries on Sunday.

33a158f9-3845-40c8-98d4-3588c4a93e78.gif

[Storm]

00z GFS still looks fairly chilly Thursday into next weekend. Maybe some flurries on Sunday.
33a158f9-3845-40c8-98d4-3588c4a93e78.gif

Very similar progression so far as 18z.

[Catnip]

The 2016-17 'Salt Crisis of the Century' was also a notable event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QLSViytsl0

C42DB808-5133-4EFF-8214-5F6822F80EE2.jpeg

[Monty]

Rain is really picking up here now. “It’s raining cats and dogs” according to Davis. Around 26mm on the day. Trajectory is pretty close to due west now it appears. We often get a little shadowing with that but this will likely really funnel into the eastern Fraser valley overnight.

[Monty]

Very similar progression so far as 18z.

I’d love to see a couple hard freezes next weekend with the real arctic air holding off for another week or two

[Typeing3]

Very similar progression so far as 18z.

Yep, similar but a bit warmer, especially in the mid-long range. More in line with the ensembles.

[Typeing3]

I’d love to see a couple hard freezes next weekend with the real arctic air holding off for another week or two

Definitely looks like some modified arctic air moving through the interior late next week into the weekend. A couple hard freezes and some flurries for us on the south coast would be a nice "warning shot".