January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

06gfs? Did you see it?

Ya i saw it
Or maybe i was looking at 00z. Either way, what i saw was meh
I thought 06z was just running this am??

[Bonovox]

Day 10 of the Euro is a bit misleading. That has the Euro's cut off low bias written all over it. Remove that and the blocking is pretty darn good. We'll see.

[Hawk]

Current ensemble mean for day 8-12 looks to be about 1-2c warmer than yesterday's.

Yup like John said...the trend is not our friend. I'm seeing the models struggle lots. What was initially a perfect blocking pattern has now turned into multiple different solutions..most of them obviously not as good.
Good luck checking all the Z's the next few days.
I'm out and will see where we are at on Jan 19 or 20. Unless i feel the need to post a comment about something of course...will be a spectator watching from the sidelines buttees!!!

[Bonovox]

Jeeze. I didn't have time to look at the models this morning and after briefly reading the forum, I thought the morning runs were disastrous. Not really the case at all. The 12z GFS was decent, the Euro could be going places and the GEM had lots of cold air around with lots of high latitude blocking.


People need to relax. There is going to be lots of run to run model noise in the Ops. And remember, we don't need historic cold for snow. Time will tell.

[PortKells]

Yup like John said...the trend is not our friend. I'm seeing the models struggle lots. What was initially a perfect blocking pattern has now turned into multiple different solutions..most of them obviously not as good.
Good luck checking all the Z's the next few days.
I'm out and will see where we are at on Jan 19 or 20. Unless i feel the need to post a comment about something of course...will be a spectator watching from the sidelines buttees!!!

This happens every time. I've never seen an arctic blast or great pattern without 2 or 3 solid rug pulls. It could be that it is falling apart but I don't buy it yet.

[Catnip]

Jeeze. I didn't have time to look at the models this morning and after briefly reading the forum, I thought the morning runs were disastrous. Not really the case at all. The 12z GFS was decent, the Euro could be going places and the GEM had lots of cold air around with lots of high latitude blocking.


People need to relax. There is going to be lots of run to run model noise in the Ops. And remember, we don't need historic cold for snow. Time will tell.

IMO, extreme cold wasn't really on the table for the mid-term. If 1 or two runs show extreme cold that wasn't really going to verify and then pull back, is that really a bad trend, or the expected reality?

I am more interested in the cool down and snow chances that are still on the table.

[Bonovox]

IMO, extreme cold wasn't really on the table for the mid-term. If 1 or two runs show extreme cold that wasn't really going to verify and then pull back, is that really a bad trend, or the expected reality?

I am more interested in the cool down and snow chances that are still on the table.

Absolutely. A pattern change to below normal temperatures is still a given. With that comes chances of lowland snow. The historic cold stuff was just eye candy really. And who knows, the next run may bring it back.

[Catnip]

Ridging is a bit better on the 18z than the 12z.

What it means going forward?

18z.png

12z.png

[Bonovox]

Ridging is a bit better on the 18z than the 12z.

What it means going forward?

18z.png
12z.png

Yeah, a bit cooler than the 12z on Friday morning.

[John]

Yup like John said...the trend is not our friend. I'm seeing the models struggle lots. What was initially a perfect blocking pattern has now turned into multiple different solutions..most of them obviously not as good.
Good luck checking all the Z's the next few days.
I'm out and will see where we are at on Jan 19 or 20. Unless i feel the need to post a comment about something of course...will be a spectator watching from the sidelines buttees!!!

Good idea about being on the sidelines for a bit I might do the same.
My interpretations are not welcome lately either lol

[Bonovox]

Good idea about being on the sidelines for a bit I might do the same.
My interpretations are not welcome lately either lol

Your ideas are always welcomed, John. It's okay to disagree.

[Bonovox]

The 18z is a lot cooler next Saturday than the 12z.

[John]

The 18z is a lot cooler next Saturday than the 12z.

By how many degrees Bono?

[Bonovox]

By how many degrees Bono?

[Storm]

The 18z is a lot cooler next Saturday than the 12z.

Trend?