December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

It's not at all unusual for the cold to initially drop east before shifting westward. This has happened with many of our arctic outbreaks.

Tell ‘em JR!

[Radar]

Traditionally, our coldest arctic blasts tend to occur in the mid and late January timeframe so that would be ideal. Seems very far away given the El Nino pattern we will be in until late December at the earliest.

Got a feeling it will be a cool long drawn out spring this year based on this fall. I hope for a snowy January as the economy is sucking a bit right now.

[Typeing3]

To be fair...I don't think we can compare the climate to pre-2010 anymore. New standard is maybe 2-3 snowfalls per winter and 1-2 arctic blasts. West Coast Ridging has been dominant and we've seen a significant decrease in Maritime Polar airmasses.

Very true as those would result in classic sloppy snowfalls (some of which could be quite significant) and pad our overall seasonal totals, especially during winters that didn't have any significant arctic blasts. The 70s was littered with those kind of snowfalls.

Case in point, in the more recent past, January 1996, 2002, 2008, and December 2012 all had snowstorms that stemmed from Maritime Polar airmasses.

Even a general blast of systems approaching from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska that would bring constant cold rain seem to have also decreased in recent years as the last time we had that type of pattern settle in for a month was probably December 2012?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

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[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Typeing3]

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Still a long ways to go until we see our Christmas 1980 repeat with temps hitting 18c in Abbotsford.

[stuffradio]

Still a long ways to go until we see our Christmas 1980 repeat with temps hitting 18c in Abbotsford.

We should all wish for a Hawaiian Christmas

[Catnip]

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[wetcoast91]

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GOA vortex eventually leads to a West Coast Ridge. Great Lakes is the place to be if you want snow and cold this winter.

There is no point in looking at the models until Jan.

[stuffradio]

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What does it say for 2m temps for the lower mainland?

[Catnip]

What does it say for 2m temps for the lower mainland?

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[wetcoast91]

Very true as those would result in classic sloppy snowfalls (some of which could be quite significant) and pad our overall seasonal totals, especially during winters that didn't have any significant arctic blasts. The 70s was littered with those kind of snowfalls.

Case in point, in the more recent past, January 1996, 2002, 2008, and December 2012 all had snowstorms that stemmed from Maritime Polar airmasses.

Even a general blast of systems approaching from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska that would bring constant cold rain seem to have also decreased in recent years as the last time we had that type of pattern settle in for a month was probably December 2012?

We barely see E-W zonal flows these days too.

Climate change is thought to lead to more amplified blocking in the higher latitudes. We are more susceptible to seeing more extremes but my guess is too much energy in the mid pacific driven by warming SST's lead to more progressive patterns. You hardly see broadened ridges take hold in the Northern Pacific anymore.

https://www.climatesignals.org/scientif ... jet-stream

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

What does it say for 2m temps for the lower mainland?

The AI Euro says ridgy/inversion/fake cold in deep clown range. Would be chilly at least in the lowlands.

The traditional, non-AI Euro says Pineapple Express rain in deep clown range.

[Catnip]

Double Digits C'MON!

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[Typeing3]

Double Digits C'MON!

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Lows higher than our average highs!