November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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arbetrader
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

Abby_wx wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:51 am 24 mm storm total in Mission. Don't know about the wind but if I had to guess near 70 km/h overnight. Light winds now. Didn't notice any damage driving around but a lot of leaves off the trees.

Forecast says rain all day today but dry currently and I'm seeing blue sky. Front moved through very fast, not seeing much behind it.
Hey Abby_wx I'm curious, will you be setting up a weather station in your new location?

It was insanely windy here in East Abbotsford this morning, our power was out for over 6 hours
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Leighbugs »

Hey everyone. Just checking in. Had no wifi when the power went out here at the beginning of the storm last night, so I couldn't post. I need to save what little data I have.

It was pretty crazy here. Lost power soon after the storm began and it wasn't on again until 3:30 this afternoon.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

arbetrader wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:14 pm Hey Abby_wx I'm curious, will you be setting up a weather station in your new location?

It was insanely windy here in East Abbotsford this morning, our power was out for over 6 hours
I drove past the outage tthis morning Arbes even hiway 1 had no street lights on it was pretty dark with the hillside above Whatcom Rd. all out.
Been meaning to ask Abby Sr. (Mission man) if he'll be putting his station back on.line. :thumbup:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Here's your weather trivia question for Rememance day no.googling please. :angel:
Screenshot_20231112_022327_WeatherCAN.jpg
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

Yxx has only received a little over 780mm of prescription so far this year. Typically the annual totals don't deviate that far from its approx 14-1500mm norm.... Given the nature of where we're at and the warmth of the equatorial Pacific, I'm thinking it's unlikely we'll reach anywhere near the norm by year's end. I don't want another flood either....
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

arbetrader wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 8:06 am Yxx has only received a little over 780mm of prescription so far this year. Typically the annual totals don't deviate that far from its approx 14-1500mm norm.... Given the nature of where we're at and the warmth of the equatorial Pacific, I'm thinking it's unlikely we'll reach anywhere near the norm by year's end. I don't want another flood either....
No thank you Arbes l wish not to stay with relatives like last time :D since l work in Abbs as much as we're related l prefer not to do that ever again thanks. :x :(
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

It's currently 9c at the pond in south Sardis.
FB_IMG_1699787526899.jpg
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

:alert: Arctic blast on the Euro ensembles :alert:

IMG_0431.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

The GFS ensembles also suggest an arctic blast but the op is opposite.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12T1.png



--------------------------------------------------
20231112222116-935589a16b51c2f081a24f6b0aa8db12c1e3471b.png
20231112222101-dbc6ee4287619a6a034634e634226de62e6f3b0e.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

tyweather wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 12:05 pm The GFS ensembles also suggest an arctic blast but the op is opposite.
Still way too early for any confidence. But it’s interesting to see both the GFS, GEM, and Euro ensembles showing a similar pattern with high latitude blocking. Could end up just being back door cold but nothing is set in stone yet. Remains a fantasy rather than forecast for now. :thumbup:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Next Monday (Day 8) looks very :raindrip: :raindrip: :raindrip: on the 18z GFS.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh180-210.gif
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:22 pm 12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-12T1.png




--------------------------------------------------
20231112222116-935589a16b51c2f081a24f6b0aa8db12c1e3471b.png
20231112222101-dbc6ee4287619a6a034634e634226de62e6f3b0e.png
Looks like growing ensemble consensus barring about 25-30% warm outliers dragging up the mean...

...and then whatever garbled mess is the GEM spaghetti plot
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 3:01 pm Next Monday (Day 8) looks very :raindrip: :raindrip: :raindrip: on the 18z GFS.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh180-210.gif
It’s Gon’ rain

Then it’s Gon’ :chilly:

:thumbup:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 5:43 pm It’s Gon’ rain

Then it’s Gon’ :chilly:

:thumbup:
Would be a pretty typical progression that eventually leads into a :chilly: blast...
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