January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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East Chilliwack
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by East Chilliwack »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:16 am We have a lot of windows. 29 in total. And they are up against the vinyl siding with no trim. We have had a few prices from window contractors. 1 was fully in favour of the retrofit option. The second was against the retrofit and tends to recommend full replacement. This option trims back the vinyl siding just enough to fit the new window in and then they trim it out with wood trim, which they allow me to pre paint. The full replacement including the trim adds about 15-20% to the cost (about 4K). I’m kind of leaning towards the full replacement, assuming the full replacement would give us a better quality product and the addition of window trim would update the house exterior somewhat. Would you agree?
Yes I would agree with that. If the extra 4K is including trims and labour it is well worth it and will give your house a new look. However another thing to think about is the casement on the inside. I’m not sure if your quotes included this but going from aluminum to vinyl windows you may have a difference in the depth that the window protrudes into your home. This may mean that you have to take all your casement and trims off the inside of the home and redo them which can be quite costly. The renovator windows will fit inside the casement and a trim can be added to fill the gap that the new window will create. This is cheaper but not as good looking and will take away 1/2” from your inside sill space. Consensus: Overall new construction windows will give a higher quality look but may be more costly.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:42 am Keep in mind that a SSW is not a driver of a pattern change but can enhance cold in a pattern change. It's a complete fallacy that this will lead to favorable conditions for the West Coast. Feb 2000 and 2010 are testimemts of this.
You would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with you. Have you watched Michael Ventrice's video on SSW's?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:36 am One thing is for sure...the cold air from Siberia is not coming here this winter. No signs of the Northern Canada torch going anywhere..In fact, all signs point towards AK torching. A developing cold pool that is developing in the East and a retrograding ridge may be the best hope for the PNW.
I tend to agree with you on this.

:shh:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

The EPS is not bad.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:56 am You would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with you. Have you watched Michael Ventrice's video on SSW's?
We only began studying SSW's in the past 15 years and impacts on climates and weather patterns. I have seen people suggesting a SSW will cause a sudden flip in the pattern and to toss out model run showing otherwise. Truth be told...we dont know. No one knows. Like the impact of low solar activity. People have their own theories but the theories are 50/50 at best.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:03 pm I tend to agree with you on this.

:shh:
Oh common! Siberian Blast ❄️ 💥 is coming. Let’s GO!

Honestly, IMO, the SSW is going to be a big shake up. Impossible to say where the core of the arctic cold will end up.

It stopped raining. I see the sun 🌞
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:28 pm The EPS is not bad.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.png
Not bad. It’s a blend so that can always be deceiving but it’s the most useful tool we have that range. Killing the Aleutian low or shifting it way west is the key right now
Last edited by Monty on Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:36 pm Oh common! Siberian Blast ❄️ 💥 is coming. Let’s GO!

Honestly, IMO, the SSW is going to be a big shake up. Impossible to say where the core of the arctic cold will end up.

It stopped raining. I see the sun 🌞
Whats that? :lol:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:36 pm Oh common! Siberian Blast ❄️ 💥 is coming. Let’s GO!

Honestly, IMO, the SSW is going to be a big shake up. Impossible to say where the core of the arctic cold will end up.

It stopped raining. I see the sun 🌞
Still socked in and coming down here, although I do see some clearing to the SW. :thumbup:
Last edited by Antares on Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:40 pm Not bad. It’s a blend so that can always be deceiving but it’s the most useful tool we have that range. Killing the Aleutian low or shifting it way west is the key right now
I looked at the trend at hour 342 and the trend west is fairly noticeable.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:41 pm Whats that? :lol:
:cry: Tomorrow looks.............WET!
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:34 pm We only began studying SSW's in the past 15 years and impacts on climates and weather patterns. I have seen people suggesting a SSW will cause a sudden flip in the pattern and to toss out model run showing otherwise. Truth be told...we dont know. No one knows. Like the impact of low solar activity. People have their own theories but the theories are 50/50 at best.
Fair enough. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Shar wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:47 am We had a sudden pattern change overnight here. I woke up several times in the night to the sound of heavy rain. Sometime it changed over and I woke to heavy snow, still snowing at 0.1c with about 5 cm so far.
Wow what a score! :clap: :clap:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:44 pm :cry: Tomorrow looks.............WET!
Have you started gathering two of every animal?
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