February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Rug pull on the 12Z GFS. That PV is trending SE.

[Monty]

Monty do you get strait effect snows from outflow set ups? Or you too far inland?

Sometimes. I’m not very far inland but the mountains west of here don’t help much for lift. Nanaimo to Campbell River are better in that regard. We do sometimes get a convergence type snow band between the outflow from Howe sound and the Fraser outflow.

[Monty]

Rug pull on the 12Z GFS. That PV is trending SE.

Big league cold is already off the table IMO. Not enough ridging in Alaska

[Monty]

I ordered whatever the icon is having for breakfast.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I ordered whatever the icon is having for breakfast.

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You only order Fraser outflow donut holes?

[Hawk]

About 20 snowflakes on my car this morning
Perfectly sunny with clouds all around except here. -2C
Score!

Nice score Mac
I was measuring the gaps in between flakes on my vehicle and I figure they were about on average 10 mm apart and the flakes were roughly 1 to 2 mm in size if you guys can picture how sporadic that snowfall was this morning for me.

[Wintergirl]

I am genuinely curious as to why this is a rug pull? Temps at -10 overnight is cold cold for this area no? Can anyone tell me how strong the outflow winds will be for Squamish? Environment Canada says 30km an hr so curious as how you tell from the maps? I know questions, sorry I am learning ugh

[Lisa0527]

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The GFS looks awfully snowy on the 15th A big change from the 00Z.

[Monty]

You only order Fraser outflow donut holes?

Yep. Sorry. If there was something I could do about that I’d consider it.

[Esquimalt39]

Yep. Sorry. If there was something I could do about that I’d consider it.

What are you thinking about the thursday snowstorm? The euro/nam solution seems more convincing then the gfs. So for now I think a near miss to the south is more likely, but maybe a few notches north and we'll be in the thick of it?

[wetcoast91]

Well...it is definitely trending towards a dry backdoor blast with energy splitting towards AK and Southern Oregon

No moisture until the weekend. Overrunning?

ECMWF leading the way for once.

[Monty]

What are you thinking about the thursday snowstorm? The euro/nam solution seems more convincing then the gfs. So for now I think a near miss to the south is more likely, but maybe a few notches north and we'll be in the thick of it?

I like our chances.

[Esquimalt39]

Well...it is definitely trending towards a dry backdoor blast with energy splitting towards AK and Southern Oregon

No moisture until the weekend. Overrunning?

ECMWF leading the way for once.

Some models do have the moisture in the Victoria area. But it's on the verge of being totally dry with a slight southward trend.

[Hawk]

Rug pull on the 12Z GFS. That PV is trending SE.

oh no..here comes the sadness..dont be such a model rider Jr..its not good! Each run is different..pretty normal

[Monty]

Gem came north with both systems later this week. Big snows in Washington. Some on the island. It’s getting closer.