February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
- PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Saved?
Now we will have a 25% snowpack instead of a 0% snowpack!
Now we will have a 25% snowpack instead of a 0% snowpack!
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- PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:17 pm I want cold storms now to up the snowpack up there.
Looking at lots of if we get a warm and dry spring.
This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.
The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summerâ€. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
- Radar
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
You can reduce fires with carbon tax!PortKells wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.
This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.
The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summerâ€. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
BC has too many trees. Bring back the grasslands.
West Abby. Elev. 290ft
PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABBOT57/
24/25 snow total: 0cm
PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABBOT57/
24/25 snow total: 0cm
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
It will happen again, nothing stays the same my friendPortKells wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.
This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.
The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summerâ€. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
- Hawk
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Mid Feb +
We are now getting to the time of year where ridging is preferred see if we can catch a 18c sunny day
bye bye troffs..go away
We are now getting to the time of year where ridging is preferred see if we can catch a 18c sunny day
bye bye troffs..go away
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
- Abby_wx
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Probably going to get the snow tires taken off on the 26th unless the models lock onto something.
Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
- Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Maybe leave those tires on for another week or so, Abby_wx?
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It's called clown range for a reason.
- PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:16 am
Maybe leave those tires on for another week or so, Abby_wx?
ecmwf-ensemble-CYVR-indiv_snow-8128000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-8149600.png
cmc-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-8128000.png
- SouthSardiswx
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
- SouthSardiswx
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Or it will collapse in to a spring abyss.PortKells wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:00 pm I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
- Hawk
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Or worse yet..the dreaded overnight wet flurry..with no trace of anything falling overnight at all when you wake upPortKells wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:00 pm I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
#patternlock
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
- PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Ski season is back on!!
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
It's really May and June that set the stage for the fire season. We get a hot and dry May/June , followed by even an "old"normal summer (which is periodically hot in the Interior with sporadic thunderstorms) that sets the stage for a bad fire season. But add what is a "new" normal summer (hot pretty much the whole summer) and its automatically going to be a brutal fire season.PortKells wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.
This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.
The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summerâ€. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
- wetcoast91
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Dry surface soils with an earlier spring could suggest potential fire activity occuring sooner. The forest floor along Burke Mountain at 900m is shockingly dry already. This is very concerning.PortKells wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.
This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.
The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summerâ€. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
Major issue is up north with "zombie fires" readying to spring up. Overall a deep snowpack along with a slow melt and cooler than normal summer is definitely needed.