October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

forecasting the year without a winter in the Pacific NW. I expect this winter to be dominated by a -NAO and +PNA.

What a ballzy statement by Mark he rarely goes out on a limb like that.
Another blazing day of 28c in the central valley, smoky, hazy resilient weather.

[Bonovox]

Not enough #feetz!

True enough, butte. Although this was from Steveston, which may be the worst location for snowfall across Metro Vancouver.

[Bonovox]

RAIN!!!

A whole 8mm.

[Catnip]

RAIN!!!

A whole 8mm.

Outlier!!

[Abby_wx]

What a ballzy statement by Mark he rarely goes out on a limb like that.
Another blazing day of 28c in the central valley, smoky, hazy resilient weather.

28.1C here for the second day in a row.

27.5C at YXX. Another daily record, and also broke yesterday's record for the latest 27C on record.

[Typeing3]

True enough, butte. Although this was from Steveston, which may be the worst location for snowfall across Metro Vancouver.

Plenty of cold during the second half of that month (only November on record that stacks up with the legendary 1985). But not a ton of snow.
Station in Langley only recorded precip:

Screenshot 2022-10-07 173322.png

Screenshot 2022-10-07 173343.png

[Typeing3]

Plenty of cold during the second half of that month (only November on record that stacks up with the legendary 1985). But not a ton of snow.
Station in Langley only recorded precip:
Screenshot 2022-10-07 173322.png
Screenshot 2022-10-07 173343.png

And here is the data from Agassiz:

Screenshot 2022-10-07 173624.png

Screenshot 2022-10-07 173641.png

[Typeing3]

Driest Octobers (Vancouver)
#1 -- 2002: 18.3mm

#2 -- 1987: 20.4mm

#3 -- 1991 24.2mm

#4 -- 1897: 29.2mm

#5 -- 1907: 30.7mm

#6 -- 1911: 31.5mm

#7 -- 1952: 35.3mm

#8 -- 1916: 37.3mm

#9 -- 2013: 37.4mm

#10 -- 1964: 42.7mm

#11 -- 1923: 43.7mm

#12 -- 1978: 45.4mm

#13 -- 1922: 47.2mm

#14 -- 1986: 49.2mm

#15 -- 1917 and 1954 : 49.8mm



Data: Steveston (1896-1936) + YVR (1937-2021)

[Typeing3]

Driest September + Octobers (Abbotsford)
#1 -- 1987: 44.6mm

#2 -- 1991: 59.6mm

#3 -- 1974: 71.4mm

#5 -- 2002: 86.4mm

#6 -- 1952: 97mm

#7 -- 1993: 98mm

#8 -- 2006: 107.6mm

#9 -- 1942: 110.3mm

#10 -- 1954: 116.1mm

#11 -- 2008: 117.4mm

#12 -- 1957: 132.8mm

#13 -- 1998: 137.2mm

#14 -- 1936: 141.2mm

#15 -- 1937: 148.6mm



Data: Upper Sumas (1936-1944) + YXX (1945-2021)

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 1KAXmOk5nw

[SouthSardiswx]

It appears we keep setting the bar higher for Augtober and we keep clearing it unbelievable, it's currently 17c @ the pond in south Sardis forget about any frost for weeks at this rate. the high @ the pond in south Sardis was 28c today this is crazy.

[SouthSardiswx]

Rainfall-anomaly-in-winter-during-positive-PNA.png
See the years with this pattern. Basically a +PNA and -NAO means ridging in between warm and wet for us. What is going with La Nina? Getting trumped by stronger weather phenomena in the Northern Hemisphere?

Your correct Mr. Analysis man, this La Nina may be one big dog pile of.... unfortunately.

[Forrest Gump]

Driest Octobers (Vancouver)
#1 -- 2002: 18.3mm

#2 -- 1987: 20.4mm

#3 -- 1991 24.2mm

#4 -- 1897: 29.2mm

#5 -- 1907: 30.7mm

#6 -- 1911: 31.5mm

#7 -- 1952: 35.3mm

#8 -- 1916: 37.3mm

#9 -- 2013: 37.4mm

#10 -- 1964: 42.7mm

#11 -- 1978: 45.4mm

#12 -- 1923: 43.7mm

#13 -- 1922: 47.2mm

#14 -- 1986: 49.2mm

#15 -- 1917 and 1954 : 49.8mm



Data: Steveston (1896-1936) + YVR (1937-2021)

Maybe Mr. October of 2022 can pitch a shutout

[SouthSardiswx]

Maybe Mr. October of 2022 can pitch a shutout

Not bad so far 7 skipper.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (50).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (51).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (52).png