November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

18z GFS gets a bit interesting day 10-13. A bit of modified arctic air settles into the interior and trickles out to the coast. A couple chilly days followed by an overrunning event.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png
gfs_T850_nwus_49.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png

The 12Z Euro agrees on the 500mb pattern.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7064000.png

[Typeing3]

The 12Z Euro agrees on the 500mb pattern.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7064000.png

Interesting.

Unfortunately, there's not really a lot of cold air up north right now because temps ran so far above average in October, though it is thankfully starting to build now. Still, even if we do end up seeing somewhat of a favourable pattern develop for a few days sometime within the next few weeks, our access to legit cold air is pretty much nil.

[VanCitySouth]

Just got a big rumble of thunder here.

[Lisa0527]

Yup..some very impressive thunder on the west side. No lightning that I’ve seen.

[wetcoast91]

Yup..some very impressive thunder on the west side. No lightning that I’ve seen.

That was near UBC.
Could hear that from New West.

[Weather101]

Lighting and some loud thunder

[Lisa0527]

Crackling thunder that feels right overhead. I’m near UBC, so I guess I might be.

[AbbyJr]

Interesting.

Unfortunately, there's not really a lot of cold air up north right now because temps ran so far above average in October, though it is thankfully starting to build now. Still, even if we do end up seeing somewhat of a favourable pattern develop for a few days sometime within the next few weeks, our access to legit cold air is pretty much nil.

Yeah but as long as the cold starts to build now, we should be all set for December and or January.

[PortKells]

Only 768 hrs away!

500h_anom.na.png

Even if that was 76.8 hours away I would be skeptical

[wetcoast91]

The cell with the departing low is spitting out intense precip rates. Signs of potential rotation...Wouldnt rule out a possible cold core funnel.

[wetcoast91]

Looks like there was a watersprout! Rather large cone too....
https://twitter.com/roeldsouza/status/1 ... 58TEA&s=19

[Catnip]

Woah...

Tornado watch in effect for Squamish!!!

Edit.

Watches

5:30 PM PDT Saturday 06 November 2021
Tornado watch in effect for:

Howe Sound

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

[Forrest Gump]

Woah...

Tornado watch in effect for Squamish!!!

Edit.

Watches

5:30 PM PDT Saturday 06 November 2021
Tornado watch in effect for:

Howe Sound

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

I just got alerted of a tornado watch in west Vancouver

[Catnip]

I just alerted have tornado watch in west Vancouver

Watches

5:30 PM PDT Saturday 06 November 2021
Tornado watch in effect for:

Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver

Conditions are favourable for the development of funnel clouds and possibly brief, weak tornadoes.

A waterspout was spotted west of Vancouver International Airport and is moving north towards West Vancouver and the mouth of Howe Sound including Bowen Island.

Current indications are that it is weakening but the atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of waterspouts or weak funnel clouds over the next few hours.

This is a dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation.

Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

In the event of a tornado, or if a tornado warning is issued for your area, it is recommended you take the following actions: Go indoors to a room on the lowest floor, away from outside walls and windows, such as a basement, bathroom, stairwell or interior closet. Leave mobile homes, vehicles, tents, trailers and other temporary or free-standing shelter, and move to a strong building if you can. As a last resort, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Tornado watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[wetcoast91]

Fortunately that cell missed Metro Van as that funnel would have touched down on land. We will never know the exact stength but that was a well organized large cone watersprout...EF3?