January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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stuffradio
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:33 am I like the trends of a massive ridge overhead. This would set us up for some fake cold and sunny days! CMON!!!!

This mild rain is even too much for me. I would gladly take Jan-Feb 2015 with +15C sunshine.
That would set me up for Spring fever if that happened!

By the way, if anyone is shocked at Garlic sprouting already, don't be. Garlic sprouts early in really cold weather and it sprouts early even in the prairies where they get super cold weather -10C to even -20 - -30C. Garlic is usually sprouting in December sometime here or January, depending on when you plant it.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

tyweather wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:36 am Snowing at Sasquatch. Pretty consistent that they are getting snow when the north shore is seeing rain.

12Z blue in the clown range

Image
Must be west coast slush, but better than rain. Build that snow pack for powder days down the road.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:dunno:

#climo says GEFS may be correct.
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by East Chilliwack »

Monty wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:21 pm Since the weather is boring..... do we have any contractors, builders, renovation gurus on the forum. We have aluminum windows that need replacing. Seals are going and they condensate and grow mold on the frames. Should we replace with retrofit renovation viny windows or go for full replacement vinyl windows?
I flip houses for a living. I always replace the old windows with new vinyl windows, here are some of my observations. If your vinyl siding or stucco is directly against your windows it is much easier to replace with retrofit renovator windows. It’s just a matter of cutting out the panes of glass and smacking out the Center bar, if it is a slider, and slipping a new window inside the opening.However they are approx 10 percent more in cost, and I find if I can ( when there is easy to cut wood siding, or wood trims that you can take off) I would rather put in new construction windows as I find them to look and feel of better quality. Also I always retrim my windows with 1x6 or thicker material as this really makes them pop! I have attached some before and after pics as inspiration!
4BB5B81D-6F48-4507-A048-A476E15D0F78.png
F52DC94D-B11F-4201-AF95-1F3436D9EB60.png
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

PG is finally having a decent snow day for once this winter:
https://youtu.be/PoDb04HdZ84
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:16 am :dunno:

#climo says GEFS may be correct.

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One thing is for sure...the cold air from Siberia is not coming here this winter. No signs of the Northern Canada torch going anywhere..In fact, all signs point towards AK torching. A developing cold pool that is developing in the East and a retrograding ridge may be the best hope for the PNW.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:36 am One thing is for sure...the cold air from Siberia is not coming here this winter. No signs of the Northern Canada torch going anywhere..In fact, all signs point towards AK torching. A developing cold pool that is developing in the East and a retrograding ridge may be the best hope for the PNW.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :clap: :clap: :clap:

The SSW hasn't even peaked yet. Its only the beginning of January. Yet you still know this for sure.

To be expected from El Nito. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:42 am :lol: :lol: :lol: :clap: :clap: :clap:

The SSW hasn't even peaked yet. Its only the beginning of January. Yet you still know this for sure.

To be expected from El Nito. :thumbup:
We are seeing the effects of the SSW. Each run is only warming Canada up even more...I wouldnt be surprised if the red eventually burns a hole through Nunavut soon...
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:00 am We are seeing the effects of the SSW. Each run is only warming Canada up even more...I wouldnt be surprised if the red eventually burns a hole through Nunavut soon...
Image
Long range models are usually useless during a SSW and there can be a 2-3 week lag. Can we not wait at least another week for it to peak before cancelling winter? :lol:

Even if January busts there is still solid potential for early February in my opinion. Plus, we don't need Siberian cold for snow either.
Last edited by AbbyJr on Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

East Chilliwack wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:21 am I flip houses for a living. I always replace the old windows with new vinyl windows, here are some of my observations. If your vinyl siding or stucco is directly against your windows it is much easier to replace with retrofit renovator windows. It’s just a matter of cutting out the panes of glass and smacking out the Center bar, if it is a slider, and slipping a new window inside the opening.However they are approx 10 percent more in cost, and I find if I can ( when there is easy to cut wood siding, or wood trims that you can take off) I would rather put in new construction windows as I find them to look and feel of better quality. Also I always retrim my windows with 1x6 or thicker material as this really makes them pop! I have attached some before and after pics as inspiration!
4BB5B81D-6F48-4507-A048-A476E15D0F78.pngF52DC94D-B11F-4201-AF95-1F3436D9EB60.png
We have a lot of windows. 29 in total. And they are up against the vinyl siding with no trim. We have had a few prices from window contractors. 1 was fully in favour of the retrofit option. The second was against the retrofit and tends to recommend full replacement. This option trims back the vinyl siding just enough to fit the new window in and then they trim it out with wood trim, which they allow me to pre paint. The full replacement including the trim adds about 15-20% to the cost (about 4K). I’m kind of leaning towards the full replacement, assuming the full replacement would give us a better quality product and the addition of window trim would update the house exterior somewhat. Would you agree?
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:16 am Long range models are usually useless during a SSW and there can be a 2-3 week lag. Can we not wait at least another week for it to peak before cancelling winter? :lol:

Even if January busts there is still solid potential for early February in my opinion. Plus, we don't need Siberian cold for snow either.
I never cancelled winter. I just said any extreme cold is unlikely here.

I also kill hamsters.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:23 am I never cancelled winter. I just said any extreme cold is unlikely here.

I also kill hamsters.
Fair enough. But I still think its too early to have any confidence in the final outcome of the SSW. I could be wrong though. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthHillFrosty »

February has been the golden month and there is no reason to think it will not deliver again.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:28 am Fair enough. But I still think its too early to have any confidence in the final outcome of the SSW. I could be wrong though. :thumbup:
Keep in mind that a SSW is not a driver of a pattern change but can enhance cold in a pattern change. It's a complete fallacy that this will lead to favorable conditions for the West Coast. Feb 2000 and 2010 are testimemts of this.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:42 am Keep in mind that a SSW is not a driver of a pattern change but can enhance cold in a pattern change. It's a complete fallacy that this will lead to favorable conditions for the West Coast. Feb 2000 and 2010 are testimemts of this.
Yeah I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Too confident when there is still no evidence. :silent: :think:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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