September 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

Speaking of hurricanes, for only the second time they had to use the Greek alphabet because they ran out of English names from the seasonal list. The only other time was the record breaking 2005 season, when Alpha formed in late October, and they got all the way to Zeta before the calendar interrupted. We are a whole month ahead of 2005

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

Heavy thunderstorms east of Portland early this morning brought much needed rain. I wonder why the south coast didn't get any rain/thunder?

[Weather101]

Heavy thunderstorms east of Portland early this morning brought much needed rain. I wonder why the south coast didn't get any rain/thunder?

we suck

[Typeing3]

Midweek AR event still looking decent on the GFS and GEM.

[Typeing3]

Latest GFS ensembles paint a similar picture - very wet midweek. Looks like that system will mark the start of the fall wet season as we have continuous precip chances following in the long range.

[tyweather]

Speaking of hurricanes, for only the second time they had to use the Greek alphabet because they ran out of English names from the seasonal list. The only other time was the record breaking 2005 season, when Alpha formed in late October, and they got all the way to Zeta before the calendar interrupted. We are a whole month ahead of 2005

Alpha's old news. We already have Beta


Topical Tropical: (CORRECTION Fri 2:30 pm -- BETA is now the name for Tropical Storm in Gulf of M. ALPHA was given to the storm approaching Spain from the Atlantic.) The tropical depression in the SW area of the Gulf of Mexico will likely be named BETA (all the standard 2020 storm names are all assigned). BETA could have a serious FLOODING impact on the coastal areas of TX & LA. Why? it will likely strengthen to a low category hurricane, then scratch the shoreline of SE TX, before it moves back out into the Gulf to strengthen a 2nd time, and stall out FOR DAYS before finally final landfall sometime on Fri (Think a cousin to HARVEY). Oh my. Also, TEDDY is turning into a monster hurricane in the Atlantic. Over a week ago, it looked like this storm would tease a strike in FL, but now it is on the verge of being a ‘fish storm’ - never making landfall. That said, The WxCafe (TM) is noting - with each model run the past couple of days - that TEDDY may edge closer to the New England, Nova Scotia region. TEDDY could become so powerful, that a direct landfall hit would not be needed for news-worthy impact; rather, coastal storm surge may be serious along the far northern Atlantic coast. Ponder points with a Mug.

https://ovs.com/wx-cafe

[AbbyJr]

Midweek AR event still looking decent on the GFS and GEM.

Yup. GFS and GEM show it beginning on Wednesday and persisting through Friday.

GFS.png

GEM.png

[Coquitlam79]

we suck

They need it more than we do (the rain that is, not the lightning). Looking at the radar there's not much out there probably a few scattered showers near the border and in the valley is all wr will see this evening. The meteorologists on the radio (Kuss and Lacate) were sort of hyping up the rain at least the showers all week so now that's it a non event it is a little disappointing. Maybe we will get some wrap-around moisture overnight an early tomorrow it is a very slow moving weak low pressure system hard to pinpoint where the showers will be.

[Weather101]

They need it more than we do (the rain that is, not the lightning). Looking at the radar there's not much out there probably a few scattered showers near the border and in the valley is all wr will see this evening. The meteorologists on the radio (Kuss and Lacate) were sort of hyping up the rain at least the showers all week so now that's it a non event it is a little disappointing. Maybe we will get some wrap-around moisture overnight an early tomorrow it is a very slow moving weak low pressure system hard to pinpoint where the showers will be.

I was more so just joking since the weather usually is boring and sucks. But I never expected this to be event or even see that much rain.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

AQI down to 78 “moderate.” Best in over a week.

[stuffradio]

I'm getting decent rain right now.

[stuffradio]

It looks like we will get 75+ mm of rain this week.

[AbbyJr]

TWN forecast for Abbotsford and Coquitlam:

Abbotsford:

Screen Shot 2020-09-21 at 2.04.09 PM.png

Coquitlam:

Screen Shot 2020-09-21 at 2.07.59 PM.png

I feel like amounts are likely overdone for Abbotsford. Usually we get some rain shadowing out here in the valley during atmospheric rivers. We will see.

[Coquitlam79]

Latest medium range models have a monster West coast ridge coming back after the AR event this week. It's gonna get warm and dry again maybe through Thanksgiving. This is normal, the rainy season doesn't usually get going for weeks. Mid to late October.

[AbbyJr]

Insane ridging returns next week as projected on all 3 major models. Solid agreement as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1380800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1380800.png

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-1380800.png