December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Was clear here but the fog moved in about 30 minutes ago. Temp steady at 1c.

Clear and plus 1c in the central valley and no fog @ Rudolphs home for the holiday's the pond in south Sardis.

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[Hawk]

On a brighter note:

https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index ... 2,-120.514

only 2.5 hours away for your snow and wintry fix

[SouthSardiswx]

Well l'll be a reindeer with a red nose. must be A. I. acting up again. We hit a low of 0c in the central valley this morning and it's currently plus 2c @ the Griswolds home for Christmas the pond in south Sardis.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Snowflakes now showing up in EC forecasts as well.

Screenshot 2024-12-10 at 08.10.07.png

[wetcoast91]

I like the trends of a strong GOA/AL vortex. Really active weather with some major AR and windstorm potential.

EC and TWN is a joke. Snow is pure fantasy at this point.

[Catnip]

I like the trends of a strong GOA/AL vortex. Really active weather with some major AR and windstorm potential.

EC and TWN is a joke. Snow is pure fantasy at this point.

Some models were showing this last week. Funny how the long range models showing have a much higher chance of being correct while those showing the usually don't.

Lots of warm air being pumped into NA when if that takes hold. Pacific air for all!

[Typeing3]

Low of -1.5c and very frosty in east Coquitlam earlier this morning.

[Typeing3]

I like the trends of a strong GOA/AL vortex. Really active weather with some major AR and windstorm potential.

EC and TWN is a joke. Snow is pure fantasy at this point.

It's also what we need for a pattern reset heading into late month and January.

[Catnip]

Low of -1.0c this am.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Min of –1.3˚C here.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Some models were showing this last week. Funny how the long range models showing have a much higher chance of being correct while those showing the usually don't.

Lots of warm air being pumped into NA when if that takes hold. Pacific air for all!

is a lot closer to climo norms here than . So the odds will happen are naturally higher than the odds will happen. Given that model runs often don’t do much better than random chance, there’s your answer.

[wetcoast91]

Some models were showing this last week. Funny how the long range models showing have a much higher chance of being correct while those showing the usually don't.

Lots of warm air being pumped into NA when if that takes hold. Pacific air for all!

The models have vastly improved in recent years. You used to see varying changes between 168 hours to 360 hours at the 500mb level. Clown range arctic blasts, 400mm of rain, major unrealistic windstorms.

Now it seems like we know the general pattern 14 days out.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

is a lot closer to climo norms here than . So the odds will happen are naturally higher than the odds will happen. Given that model runs often don’t do much better than random chance, there’s your answer.

Also, model runs that call for do often fail. It’s just that not as many people root for torching, so the disappointment (and consequent lingering in memory) does not happen. As an example, last week was modelled to be a lot torchier than it actually ended up being at times. Yet nobody is whining about being disappointed that widespread highs in the 60’s Fahrenheit as far north as Tacoma failed to materialize as once advertised.

[Catnip]

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[Catnip]

Latest Euro AI Pumps up a Mega Ridge over us in the extended.

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It then starts to retrograde toward XMAS.

Maybe this is the beginning of the cold moving West as we get into January, as depicted in the Euro weeklies.

aifs_z500_anom_noram_360.png