December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Here are the three different pictures at hour 240. to my untrained eye, these are not terrible. It looks like the GFS is the best for getting a brief shot of cold marine air, the CMC has an absolute beauty of a ridge forming in the NPac and the Euro is somewhere in between. The GFS is lacking that ridge, is that what you would call a cut off low in the North Pacific? And is that what would likely ruin our chances of dislodging that cold pile and having it wander down this way?

gfs_z500a_nhem_41.png

gem_z500a_nhem_41.png

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

[stuffradio]

Your profile still says Maple Ridge.

I'm incognito. I love to play "Where in the world is Stuffradio".

WTHeck stuffers you get married and you left the neighborhood when did you sneak out there? did you take the garden with you? no wonder no veggie reports or jogging at 6 in the morning and running into bears. You've gone rogue on us.

I've been here over a year haha. Before the lock downs I was still mostly going back at least once a week to visit. My sister and her family took over the garden on that property because she also lived on the same property and it's too far for me to grow my own garden there. I got a very tiny city plot to work with for now. I hope to get much more than that again some day Don't worry, our long term plan is still to move back to Maple Ridge. It's too busy in Langley. I also still go jogging, just not at 6 am in the morning and I don't run into bears here.

[hawk2]

Good homework PortKells..aren't those maps pretty Nito?

[PortKells]

Good homework PortKells..aren't those maps pretty Nito?

It could probably go either way. The -PNA and +EPO on the EPS just has to verify and get a little more amplified and were in business. Knowing our luck here in the PNW, it'll probably find some way to go Nito.

[AbbyJr]

GEM is having none of it. Gives us a week of mild rain including a 6 day AR event Wed through Mon followed by what appears to be the first arctic blast of the season being primed over the West Coast.



Definite flooding.

GEM is insane. Thankfully, it often shows extreme solutions that don't end up verifying. But even if you have the totals of rain shown by both the Global model and Ensembles, its still a significant AR event.

[wetcoast91]

Here are the three different pictures at hour 240. to my untrained eye, these are not terrible. It looks like the GFS is the best for getting a brief shot of cold marine air, the CMC has an absolute beauty of a ridge forming in the NPac and the Euro is somewhere in between. The GFS is lacking that ridge, is that what you would call a cut off low in the North Pacific? And is that what would likely ruin our chances of dislodging that cold pile and having it wander down this way?

gfs_z500a_nhem_41.pnggem_z500a_nhem_41.pngecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

If you want snow and cold. ECMWF is not what one should root for. This GOA trough would merge with energy near the tropics propping a REX block over the west coast or AR event.

[hawk2]

If you want snow and cold. ECMWF is not what one should root for. This GOA trough would merge with energy near the tropics propping a REX block over the west coast or AR event.

Dayyyum this Nito guy is technical... Always like hearing the analysis..good or bad. Oh, and thanks for not being "Phil"

[Storm]

Only 7 sleeps away.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

[Typeing3]

GEM is having none of it. Gives us a week of mild rain including a 6 day AR event Wed through Mon followed by what appears to be the first arctic blast of the season being primed over the West Coast.



Definite flooding.

Arctic blasts are usually preceded by AR events or prolonged wet spells. Progression is probably rushed on the GEM though.

We'll see but I think we will be waiting till closer to late month for arctic air. Fringe snows before are a definite possibility though.

[AbbyJr]

GEM is absolutely insane with 4 significant AR events this upcoming week. Here's the meteogram for Abbotsford.

Screen Shot 2020-12-05 at 4.12.13 PM.png

[wetcoast91]

18Z GFS goes chilly and dry after Tues with modified arctic air seeping into the region. Perhaps some spotty flurries Thurs-Fri.

Major differences between all models after 84 HR right now. Not sure why it's diverging so much...

[PortKells]

Maybe those volcanic eruptions are actually messing with everything?

[Weather101]

18Z GFS goes chilly and dry after Tues with modified arctic air seeping into the region. Perhaps some spotty flurries Thurs-Fri.

Major differences between all models after 84 HR right now. Not sure why it's diverging so mucu...

wouldn't mind seeing some flurries

[Typeing3]

18z ensembles:

[SouthSardiswx]

18z ensembles:

Thanks T man all we need is the violins and the cancel button. Why do we 2 hawks ones bad enough.