August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

12km NAM.

[Bonovox]

12Z RGEM is glorious. Too bad it sucks with handling precip totals. We'll have to wait for the HRDPS.

[Bonovox]

12Z GFS is pretty progressive. Any extreme heat isn't around for too long, but it still sucks.

[wetcoast91]

I used to be on the fence, but the truth is undeniable. Our new climate sucks.

Definitely need to see governments invest in more controlled burns and fire lines. We will also probably need more alpine water reserves going forward. We have been lucky with decent alpine snow totals, we are going to be in rough once we have a few bad winters.

[PortKells]

I was also around in 2015 when many "experts" said the smoke was a rare summer event. This is our new climate. Forests will continue to burn out in BC and we will see many native trees die off along the Coast.

Yeah I even read somewhere that after 2017 and 2018, there weren't enough swaths of dead trees to have those kinds of smoky summers again for a generation. I think there's a certain amount of cognitive dissonance required that allows us to get on with our daily lives without freaking out about the future and even the present.

If this summer's extremes were cold ones, it would be like an 1800s style winter with the Fraser River frozen solid.

[PortKells]

12Z RGEM is glorious. Too bad it sucks with handling precip totals. We'll have to wait for the HRDPS.

Very strange how this rain has been handled by the models. Reminds me of snow events.

[Bonovox]

12Z GEFS.

After the initial trough, just pulses and pulses of varying degree warmth.

[Bonovox]

Definitely need to see governments invest in more controlled burns and fire lines. We will also probably need more alpine water reserves going forward. We have been lucky with decent alpine snow totals, we are going to be in rough once we have a few bad winters.

At a much more local level, I think building codes will need to be looked at. Mandatory A/C for any long term care homes should be a must, unless it already is. I'm not entirely sure.

[Glacier]

The big question is: Was Lytton the hottest place in BC yesterday, or was it Lillooet?

EC says Lytton, but NavCanada disagrees...

aug4summar.png

[Typeing3]

I was also around in 2015 when many "experts" said the smoke was a rare summer event. This is our new climate. Forests will continue to burn out in BC and we will see many native trees die off along the Coast.

Decades of fire suppression, forest and grassland ecosystem mismanagement has also played a massive part. Add in warmer/drier summers compared to existing warm/dry climactic normals and it's like a ticking time bomb getting worse as the years go by.

Prior to widespread settlement of the Pacific Northwest and surrounding regions to the south and east at the turn of the last century, fires and smoke were a lot more common than in the ensuing decades.


https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52864
Fire on the early western landscape: An annotated record of wildland fires 1776-1900

Based on the analysis of fire-scarred trees, fire history studies have documented the frequency of early fires in the major cover types of the northern Rocky Mountains, middle Rocky Mountains, and Owyhee Plateau. These studies suggest that fire period-icity varied with climate and fuels.

Frequent fires in dry regions inhibited optimal growth of woody vegetation. Today, the number and sizes of fires in these regions have been markedly reduced, and large
areas have not burned since the late 1800's. This change has apparently been caused by the reduction of fine fuels by livestock, elimination of Indian ignitions, and efficient fire suppression.

Where fires were frequent, the reduction of fire has resulted in a dramatic increase in woody vegetation. In the Oregon Cascades and western Moorana, for example, ponderosa pine is being successionally replaced by shade tolerant species. On the Owyhee Plateau juniper has invaded the sagebrush and perennial bunchgrass type. In the cool-dry regions of Yellowstone Park and southwestern Moorana, Douglas-fir forests are now more densely stocked, and sagebrush/ grasslands are being heavily invaded by trees.

In general, fires have been less frequent in the moist regions of north Idaho and high-cold regions elsewhere. Fires were particularly prevalent during dry years 1910-1934. Since the early 1940's, the marked reduction in acres burned yearly has resulted in successional advances and reduced diversity.

Hisrorical narratives documenting early fire occurrence provide an understanding of the past role of fire in shaping patterns of vegetation. These narratives and fire
history studies demonstrate that fires have had a major influence on vegetation in the interior West. This knowledge can help land managers understand why vegetation has changed and aid in assessing the desired role of fire in the future.

[PortKells]

Fires are normal. That is just ecology 101. To an extent they are good at creating biodiversity and vegetation.

These fires are not normal. Fires that just explode and destroy everything in their path for months on end. These fires have human fingerprints all over them. Forestry mismanagement is obviously at the top of the list of non weather causes. But these summers are just too long, hot and dry and that is the main problem.

[Bonovox]

12Z Euro was absolutely glorious in the near term.

[John]

Fires are normal. That is just ecology 101. To an extent they are good at creating biodiversity and vegetation.

These fires are not normal. Fires that just explode and destroy everything in their path for months on end. These fires have human fingerprints all over them. Forestry mismanagement is obviously at the top of the list of non weather causes. But these summers are just too long, hot and dry and that is the main problem.

There is no way of knowing that there were no massive fires in let’s say the 1400s of course there would’ve been

but it is worse now because of years of fire suppression this to will to pass

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

[Bonovox]

12Z Euro was absolutely glorious in the near term.

And then proceeds to punch us in the face.