January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Yeah, that was a possibility. Still holding on at hour 240, but the trend for the block to inch westward is a bit concerning.

However, at worst, this turns into a COLD onshore flow type pattern and I think most would be okay with that.

The NPAC block looks broad enough so that shouldn't be a concern. In this case, sufficient amplification is needed though. Paired with the west based NAO block, it should be able to lock in cold over the west for an extended period of time. However, the PV looks to remain over Russia, so extreme (top tier) cold anywhere over the west is not likely.

[Bonovox]

You'd think OP runs will latch on to something here soon?

Maybe in the next day or two, once they resolve that initial ridging.

I think the Ops, especially the GFS, really struggle with the MJO. And that is leading to the run to run volatility.

[tyweather]

The op runs end with no AK vortex, as it moves down to us

[SouthSardiswx]

My phone app.
Screenshot_20210113-153712_Samsung Internet.jpg

l dont like that app. Stormer it's the weather channel (USA) it should be impeached as well.

[SouthSardiswx]

The op runs end with no AK vortex, as it moves down to us

Now that's outstanding. Jr. approved.

[SouthSardiswx]

The op runs end with no AK vortex, as it moves down to us

Weird configuration.

[Bonovox]

Something a little different to look at. The 12z GEFS had 25 out of 30 members showing lowland snow over YVR on the 12z run.

[Typeing3]

If the -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern persists, we'll likely trend drier than normal towards late month or in February.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 1424519168

[SouthSardiswx]

200.gif

Courtesy of the AF folks this our winter at the moment.

[Catnip]

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

Nice all members below. I'll take the orange guy Trump supporter.

[SouthSardiswx]

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

Red guy must be El Nito.

[AbbyJr]

The NPAC block looks broad enough so that shouldn't be a concern. In this case, sufficient amplification is needed though. Paired with the west based NAO block, it should be able to lock in cold over the west for an extended period of time. However, the PV looks to remain over Russia, so extreme (top tier) cold anywhere over the west is not likely.

However, the PV looks to remain over Russia, so extreme (top tier) cold anywhere over the west is not likely.

That's okay. Even if we can lock in a cold and snow pattern, that's fine by me. Personally, I'd prefer snow over extreme cold, unless I can get both.

[Catnip]

That's okay. Even if we can lock in a cold and snow pattern, that's fine by me. Personally, I'd prefer snow over extreme cold, unless I can get both.

Extreme snows followed by extreme cold to keep it around for a while.

[Bonovox]

Snow along an arctic front. Then multiple inside sliders. Followed up by a reinforcing shot of cold air and sunny weather. Book it.




I wish.