Winter 2020-2021

[Storm]

IMG_20201015_195519.jpg

[AbbyJr]

nino3.4monthly.png

nino3.4nov.png

nino3.4dec.png

nino3.4jan.png

nino3.4feb.png

nino3.4march.png

[Typeing3]

Our local mets discuss their predictions for the upcoming winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfjdyip ... e=youtu.be

[PortKells]

Our local mets discuss their predictions for the upcoming winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfjdyip ... e=youtu.be

Wow that was about as good of a winter preview as you can possibly get. They talk about how its more of a probability than a prediction to give a seasonal forecast. But overall it looks like its definitely a better probability this year than average. Given the last 5 year stretch I think its inevitable we do get something, but theres very little guarantee that its what people here including myself want, which is a top tier event or two, ala 08' or 96' or even 16/17' at this point would get me absolutely jacked on life.

I've definitely become cautious now to get my expectations going because it just doesn't make sense when you consider how crappy it is to get let down by the weather variation of a whole season. I'm hoping for some good snow on Manning/Sasquatch and maybe a good week of it down here at sea level, whether that be a pile of slush or some powder like last year.

[Typeing3]

Interesting
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeath ... 7409189888

[Michael1]

Interesting
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeath ... 7409189888

88/89 was a pretty good one for us!

[Monty]

88/89 was a pretty good one for us!

December ‘83 was arguably as good if not better than February ‘89 but you never hear anyone talk about it. It was on the dry side.

[Typeing3]

December ‘83 was arguably as good if not better than February ‘89 but you never hear anyone talk about it. It was on the dry side.

That was a true prolonged coast to coast icebox. Could argue we haven't seen anything on that magnitude since

[Michael1]

December ‘83 was arguably as good if not better than February ‘89 but you never hear anyone talk about it. It was on the dry side.

Well, what I remember about Victoria that year was getting a pretty decent snowfall around the 18/19 of December and a good shot of cold air. We even had a snowfall warning for Christmas Day, with a forecast of continued cold. BUT, as we know, things don't always turn out. Overninght on Christmas eve, it warmed up, and we had rain.

[Michael1]

Some current imagery from the Pacific:

Enso anomalies

lat_lon_sst_anom_20201021_sst_mean_20201021_hf_on_2020102415.png

overall surface anomalies

ssta.daily.current.png

[Typeing3]

Some current imagery from the Pacific:

Enso anomalies
lat_lon_sst_anom_20201021_sst_mean_20201021_hf_on_2020102415.png

overall surface anomalies
ssta.daily.current.png

Really odd to see such a strong Nina yet the north and eastern Pacific is still so warm.

[AbbyJr]

Really odd to see such a strong Nina yet the north and eastern Pacific is still so warm.

That warm pacific has me concerned for this upcoming winter. We really need a stormy November to lower those SST anomolies.

[Storm]

https://youtu.be/Wd64xdXLccM

[Bonovox]

That warm pacific has me concerned for this upcoming winter. We really need a stormy November to lower those SST anomolies.

I really don't think a warm North Pacific has that large of an effect on the macro scale pattern. While I think it definitely does not help in marginal onshore events, I don't think it would hurt any true continental air mass. And hopefully we see more of the latter.

[AbbyJr]

I really don't think a warm North Pacific has that large of an effect on the macro scale pattern. While I think it definitely does not help in marginal onshore events, I don't think it would hurt any true continental air mass. And hopefully we see more of the latter.

I agree. However, having a cold North Pacific does help us get low elevation snows during marginal onshore flows, which tend to be more common than true continental air masses. That said, I do think we will see at least one legit arctic air mass this winter. I could be wrong but I hope not.