August 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Lots of spread on the 12z ensembles. A highly amplified pattern with high lat blocking is fairly rare at this time of year so I'd expect the models to continue having difficulties in the mid and long range.

[Bonovox]

You’re not kidding about the spread. Pretty remarkable and probably a direct result of the significant heat and moisture being injected into the westerlies by the typhoons in the western Pacific.

[Roberts Creeker]

It rained here last night and this morning had drizzle and fog, got about 1 cm total.

[Roberts Creeker]

You’re not kidding about the spread. Pretty remarkable and probably a direct result of the significant heat and moisture being injected into the westerlies by the typhoons in the western Pacific.

That's cool, I've never seen that much of a spread so close. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Typeing3]

That's cool, I've never seen that much of a spread so close. Will be interesting to see what happens.

It's a lot more common during winter, particularly before an arctic blast as the jetstream becomes amplified. Models often have trouble pinpointing where exactly the ridge and trough will set up. Most of the time the ridge sets up shop over us and the trough is over central and eastern Canada.

[PortKells]

It's a lot more common during winter, particularly before an arctic blast as the jetstream becomes amplified. Models often have trouble pinpointing where exactly the ridge and trough will set up. Most of the time the ridge sets up shop over us and the trough is over central and eastern Canada.

This happened last August too. We got the heat that time. I'm going with the hawk lock on this one.

[Typeing3]

This happened last August too. We got the heat that time. I'm going with the hawk lock on this one.

The ridge will most likely set up just offshore leaving us in a mostly seasonal NW flow. Most of the cold anomalies will remain in AB and SK with Alaska experiencing another heatwave.

Or the amplified pattern could disappear completely as the west Pacific jet is too strong. Could result in a prolonged period of flat ridging.

[Roberts Creeker]

Drizzling here again. Longest rainy period this summer, usually it's sprinkled overnight if we get any. It's cool outside too, feels like fall.

[AbbyJr]

The ridge will most likely set up just offshore leaving us in a mostly seasonal NW flow. Most of the cold anomalies will remain in AB and SK with Alaska experiencing another heatwave.

Or the amplified pattern could disappear completely as the west Pacific jet is too strong. Could result in a prolonged period of flat ridging.

What makes you suspect this?

[Typeing3]

What makes you suspect this?

I'm just going with the middle ground of the two possible scenarios.


The west Pacific is fairly active right now (two typhoons) which throws a wrench into mid and long range forecasting over NA. This is why we're seeing a lot more volatility compared to average with each model run in the mid range.

[AbbyJr]

I'm just going with the middle ground of the two possible scenarios.


The west Pacific is fairly active right now (two typhoons) which throws a wrench into mid and long range forecasting over NA. This is why we're seeing a lot more volatility compared to average with each model run in the mid range.

Sure would be nice to have all this persistent GOA ridging continue into winter.

[Glacier]

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[Monty]

“If” we see re curving typhoons in the west pacific, I would typically lean towards the warmer solutions, especially this time of year.

[Hawk]

Good analysis of possible outcomes butties.

[Roberts Creeker]

EC has figured out copy and paste...

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