January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:20 am At worst, if the models hold...we are looking at a dry cool pattern with enough of a N-S gradient to keep us fog free. Seasonal temps with frosty nights. Ample sunshine.

It's not bad.
A good consolation prize, imo.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:20 am At worst, if the models hold...we are looking at a dry cool pattern with enough of a N-S gradient to keep us fog free. Seasonal temps with frosty nights. Ample sunshine.

It's not bad.
It’s bad for the lack of cold which has allowed insects like fleas to thrive. Cold keeps the environment in balance.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:19 pm It’s bad for the lack of cold which has allowed insects like fleas to thrive. Cold keeps the environment in balance.
No doubt. It is actually terrible for our eco-system. The fact that grass and weeds are still growing in January is concerning. There is a lot of "forest fuel" growth.

Sadly this year along with 2015-16 is a literal preview to our future climate here. Based on the models...I still do not see a path to any extended cold out in the West the rest of the month.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:11 pm No doubt. It is actually terrible for our eco-system. The fact that grass and weeds are still growing in January is concerning. There is a lot of "forest fuel" growth.

Sadly this year along with 2015-16 is a literal preview to our future climate here. Based on the models...I still do not see a path to any extended cold out in the West the rest of the month.
The future is now. The earth recently reached 1.95 degrees above baseline for a day, not sure if its dipped back down but it's absolutely insane. Things are accelerating faster than 99% of scientists predicted. Our next PM is going to sweep into office on a platform of "axe the tax" and the next president...well. LOL.

I just needed a cold snap for a mental break, it just clears the mind from all this crap for a bit. Maybe in February :roll: .
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:11 pm No doubt. It is actually terrible for our eco-system. The fact that grass and weeds are still growing in January is concerning. There is a lot of "forest fuel" growth.

Sadly this year along with 2015-16 is a literal preview to our future climate here. Based on the models...I still do not see a path to any extended cold out in the West the rest of the month.
January is typically the month when things start to grow. This year things have no doubt been growing at a much more aggressive rate though.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Nice. Fog advisory in place for some. You can look outside and pretend the visibility is so bad because it’s a blizzard.

Model trends are pretty bad today. Euro AI also shifted the ridge axis mostly overhead. Perhaps a clipper and then a cold sunny inversion. 😎
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:17 pm The future is now. The earth recently reached 1.95 degrees above baseline for a day, not sure if its dipped back down but it's absolutely insane. Things are accelerating faster than 99% of scientists predicted. Our next PM is going to sweep into office on a platform of "axe the tax" and the next president...well. LOL.

I just needed a cold snap for a mental break, it just clears the mind from all this crap for a bit. Maybe in February :roll: .
There was more action and awarness some 15-20 years ago but people are either more apathetic or stupid. The arctic passage being ice free was once a terrifying concept to many people but this has since stirred up excitement among the masses. I cannot wait to axe the Carbon tax only for commodiy prices to still increase. :lol:
Monty wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:35 pm Nice. Fog advisory in place for some. You can look outside and pretend the visibility is so bad because it’s a blizzard.

Model trends are pretty bad today. Euro AI also shifted the ridge axis mostly overhead. Perhaps a clipper and then a cold sunny inversion. 😎
I think GFS was overdoing to the extent of the cold air in the long-range anyways. There was no real source of cold air emanating from the arctic.

Still no SSW, and no real signs of that PV getting displaced the next few weeks.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:35 pm Nice. Fog advisory in place for some. You can look outside and pretend the visibility is so bad because it’s a blizzard.

Model trends are pretty bad today. Euro AI also shifted the ridge axis mostly overhead. Perhaps a clipper and then a cold sunny inversion. 😎
No fog warning here but a light 'blizzard' is creeping in on little cat feet, it's been sunny up until now.

Low of 0.6 in Sechelt (Wilson Creek) over night but a skim of ice on the water buckets here this morning.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:07 pm There was more action and awarness some 15-20 years ago but people are either more apathetic or stupid. The arctic passage being ice free was once a terrifying concept to many people but this has since stirred up excitement among the masses. I cannot wait to axe the Carbon tax only for commodiy prices to still increase. :lol:



I think GFS was overdoing to the extent of the cold air in the long-range anyways. There was no real source of cold air emanating from the arctic.

Still no SSW, and no real signs of that PV getting displaced the next few weeks.
Looks like the east will get another blast though.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:27 pm Looks like the east will get another blast though.
Shaping up to be like 2015 out that way. Continued cold waves with huge snowfall for the Eastern Seaboard. Long overdue for that area.

Even the end of the GFS shows continued cold there.

Image
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:20 pm Shaping up to be like 2015 out that way. Continued cold waves with huge snowfall for the Eastern Seaboard. Long overdue for that area.

Even the end of the GFS shows continued cold there.

Image
Can’t really argue that. Guess I hope it’s more like 2014 on Feb.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Now l know why l gave up on this winter in November not worth following the disappointing models. :sick:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:15 am It will be dry and cold. Like my girlfriend.
:shock:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:28 am :14clown: :lol: :anus:

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-7244800.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-7309600.png
PG High is never a bad thing :clap:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Catnip wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:43 am So nice to wake up to the sun shining! This area was high enough to be out of the fog this am.

Overnight low of +.4c.

Fairly frosty.
Slim pickings..and huge score. I dunno. Better than more rains.. :clap:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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