November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Soundings bottom out at maybe -6 or -7 on the 00Z GFS and it shows 6-10" of snow.

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

That would be insane super Stuffs fantastic hockey to watch and snow perhaps that would be absolutely ridiculous. But El Neets said winter tires and ski pass not needed this winter. Oh and split flow and El Ninoish like but he's disappeared it appears.

[SouthSardiswx]

Soundings bottom out at maybe -6 or -7 on the 00Z GFS and it shows 6-10" of snow.

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

Wouldn't November sun angles be an issue.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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[stuffradio]

Wouldn't November sun angles be an issue.

I don't think so

[Nordelian]

Soundings bottom out at maybe -6 or -7 on the 00Z GFS and it shows 6-10" of snow.

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

Keep in mind that based on the temperature profile, this is more like 5-10 cm of snow for higher elevations.

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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20231110143117-c8575c1135b478a8233d526595aed11cd9b1c8a5.png

other than one "bump" in the mid range..it's looking chilly and wet across the board

[stuffradio]

Wind/rain warning in effect!

4:48 AM PST Friday 10 November 2023

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

When: This evening to Saturday morning.

Where: BC inner south coast.

Hazard: Southeasterly winds 70 gusting to 90 km/h.

A very strong Pacific frontal system will cross the BC south coast today and tonight. Ahead of the front, winds will rise to southeast 70 gusting to 90 km/h beginning this evening. The strongest winds will occur over areas along the Strait of Georgia.

Strong southerly inflow will also develop in Howe Sound tonight with winds peaking at southeast 70 gusting to 90 km/h over southern sections overnight.

The strong winds will ease by Saturday morning then shift to moderate southwesterly in the wake of the front.

Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

5:27 AM PST Friday 10 November 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

When: Tonight and Saturday.

Where: Metro Vancouver Northshore, Metro Vancouver Northeast and the Fraser Valley.

Hazard: Rainfall amounts of 50 to 70 mm.

Remarks: A vigorous frontal system will spread rain at times heavy to the Fraser Valley and the Northshore and Northeast regions of Metro Vancouver beginning this evening. The rainfall should taper off over affected parts of Metro Vancouver on Saturday morning but persist in the Fraser Valley until Saturday evening.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[stuffradio]

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[Hawk]

4EF38F4A-3A0B-453C-A803-4EAEC7EC0214.png

More signs of the upcoming troffing. What are Nitos thots? I thought it was a full on EN stretch just 2 days ago?

[AbbyJr]

Looks like the high resolution NAM is much more widespread with the 80+ km/h wind gusts tonight but most models are very gusty.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-gust_kmh-9693200.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-gust_kmh-9686000.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-gust_kmh-9700400.png

[Abby_wx]

Wouldn't November sun angles be an issue.

Late November sun angles is the same as mid January. Then again, January sucks now so maybe that's a bad thing.

[AbbyJr]

4EF38F4A-3A0B-453C-A803-4EAEC7EC0214.png

Would be awesome to see a similar pattern to 2006/07. Loved the windstorms and that snowstorm on November 26, 2006 was absolutely epic. Definately the most intense snow rates I've ever seen. Abbotsford airport recorded 44.1cm that day, which was the highest since December 30th 1990 when 43.8cm fell. Very rare to see daily snowfalls in excess of 40cm here so it's an extra special treat when it happens.

[AbbyJr]

While obviously an extreme outlier and highly unlikely to verify, Euro ensemble member 21 has a 96mb low slamming into central Vancouver Island on November 20th. Shows a 120 km/h gust in Abbotsford. Pure fantasy.

xx_model-en-196-0_modez_2023111012_240_5618_149_m21.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-9617600.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Late November sun angles is the same as mid January. Then again, January sucks now so maybe that's a bad thing.

It appears once we start getting past Jan 1st we start loosing any chance of winter it seems as a kid growing up in Vancouver our best time for winter weather was the last week between Christmas and New Years or the first week in January.
But now it's over after Jan 1st Abby Sr.

[AbbyJr]

It appears once we start getting past Jan 1st we start loosing any chance of winter it seems as a kid growing up in Vancouver our best time for winter weather was the last week between Christmas and Nrw Years or the first week in January.
But now it's over after Jan 1st Abby Sr.

January 1954, 1966, 1969, 1991, and 1996...