January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:12 pm This dream scenario is actually plausible: A front loaded dump of snow here, a bunch of chilly days/nights, another slider next weekend followed by a brief warmup. Block reorganizes and sends a splilt polar vortex our way and gives us record breaking cold with more snow opportunities, ending off with a massive overrunning event to send us into spring fat and happy.

Nito is officially converted to a winter weather fan.
Still fantasy for now but I agree that it's definitely possible given the big cold signal in the clown range the EPS put out in today's 12Z run. :thumbup: :14clown:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:06 pm Crazy that it might by our fourth winter in a row with a 25+ cm (10+ inch) snowfall.

A lot of AF weenies will be turning very green with envy if I can report totals like that down there.
unless its a complete bum winter, snowfalls of ~10" to 12" prolly occur once every winter(when we have decent snowy years). I'm just going off memory, which is not a great idea, but i'm sure Goose has some better digits, or T3 better memories of these events :wave:
#patternshift mid Jan leads to :flakey: :flakey: #beginningofFeb...again.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

ICON 4 am Saturday morning 850mb temp.
Screenshot_20250129_132427_Edge.jpg
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:25 pm ICON 4 am Saturday morning 850mb temp.
Screenshot_20250129_132427_Edge.jpg
The 18z ICON has a nice slug of moisture moving through around Noon on Saturday. Surface temps are +1 to +3, 925mb temps -3 and 850mb temps of -8. It's going to be a dynamic day at face value.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Icon is snowier too with more snow after that hour.
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw (3).png
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

All the models are lining up now.
trend-icon-2025012918-f096.500h_anom.us_nw.gif.5c5fe6c336a6c01e2d563cc154b41add.gif
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Storm wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:31 pm Icon is snowier too with more snow after that hour.
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw (3).png
Wb maps don’t show it but that’s definitely not terrain bleed. I’m thinking there’s something off with the wb icon snow maps.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

So going back to the previous discussion on EC's current forcast.

Daily Hive (yes I know), interviewed an EC meteorologist who said temps could dip to -10c overnight at the beginning of next week.

Not sure why their forecast doesn't match their thoughts.

:shrug:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/snow-te ... er-weather
Daily Hive spoke with Lisa Erven, a meteorologist with Environment Canada and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), to learn more about what folks should prepare for with this blast of colder and wetter weather.

The region will see “light precipitation” throughout the day on Thursday with “temperatures in and around zero,” said Erven.
The type of precipitation could range from rain showers or flurries throughout the day, but “amounts will remain quite minimal,” she added.

However, things may change during the evening as precipitation rates are expected to pick up after 4 pm.

Freezing levels will remain low, and ECCC is anticipating that higher areas of terrain around Metro Vancouver, such as Burnaby Mountain and the higher neighbourhoods of West and North Vancouver, will receive around two to four centimetres of snowfall, explained Erven.

If you’re wondering if the sunshine and clear will make an appearance next week, Erven advised that likely won’t be the case.

“Behind this weather system, we’re actually going to see a drastic drop in temperatures,” she stated.

This is due to an Arctic ridge of high pressure moving down from the Yukon. This cold air will impact the northern and central parts of the province before making its way to the South Coast on Sunday night.

“And so the start of [the] next work week, we’ll see temperatures that are quite a bit below normal with overnight lows potentially getting down to -10°C,” she noted.


While Thursday’s precipitation will taper off into rain on Friday, the weekend could see another low-pressure system that will bring bursts of “intermittent” snow to Vancouver Island. This system could make its way to Metro Vancouver and continue through early to mid-next week.

It’s safe to say you’ll want to keep your jackets and mittens handy as it looks like the first real taste of winter is on its way.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:47 pm Wb maps don’t show it but that’s definitely not terrain bleed. I’m thinking there’s something off with the wb icon snow maps.
Yeah, not sure what is going on with that.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Here is another look at the ICON totals
icon snow.png
EDIT. And here is this morning's run for comparison.
icon 2.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 1:51 pm Here is another look at the ICON totals

icon snow.png
Yeah. That WeatherBell is something wrong.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

18z RGEM just beginning to show some snow on Saturday. This is ending at 10pm LCL on Saturday.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

1 am Saturday 850mb temp. 18z GFS
Screenshot_20250129_135531_Edge.jpg
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Here is the Snow on Saturday 850mb -8°C 925mb -3°C Sub. 516 thickness.
prateptype_cat-imp.us_nw.png
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

How frustrating; the models either have the east island buried, wet or screwed. Which one will it be?
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