January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

The 00z GEFS is still consistent and similar to the 18z.

The Op appears to be an outlier.

[AbbyJr]

Just playing devils advocate here... but I’ve seen the operational runs lead the change in the past. Not saying it’s going to happen (I hope not anyways) but it wouldn’t be the first time if it did.

Of course its possible.

But do remember that in the ensemble there are some very cold members, some chilly members, and some warm ones.

Each operational is going to output different possible solutions. The ensembles help us see all the possibilities. The mean is the average.

So in general, the ensemble mean should be trusted in the long range more so than the operational. But if you notice a warming trend with the operational, chances are that there more warm members filling up the ensemble.

Therefore, if we see one or two good operational runs followed by one or two bad ones, then its probably not cause for concern.

But if we start seeing all the operational runs consistently trending warmer, then we can probably assume the ensemble mean will also trend warmer.

Certainly far too soon to know what exactly will happen so we will have to continue to watch the models closely.

[Catnip]

GEPS day 10

4C164347-1197-4A01-A893-FC84840885D9.jpeg

[Hound]

Windy out here too. Just something about going to bed with the rain and wind going. Love it.

Yes, I used to have a south facing bedroom window when I was a teen into my twenties. Loved hearing the rain pelt against the window. Even the wind used to sound more intenses than it was. Even the snow would hit the window and I could hear it. It was great. Now I have an east facing bedroom window and very rarely do I get rain hitting it unless the wind is blowing out of the east.

Watching my low of 7c this evening and now it's shooting up to 11.5!
Wind is picking up now.

[VanCitySouth]

What now Jr. last night you were on top WP 2.0 today your Louie Eriksson put on waivers. that's o.k. we'll keep you on the taxi squad free popcorn too.

We're still 10 days out. Bound to have blips in the operational even if a cold snap pans out. We've seen the models advertise cold in the same time frame consistently in the past 2 days, moving up the timing per run. It may yet be a mirage but those normally stay at day 12, not move up to day 11 then 10. There is still enough cause for optimism until this one run becomes a longer term trend. At present, the evidence still points to colder weather.

[Bonovox]

Again not much of a difference between the 00z and 18z.

[Typeing3]

GEPS day 10

4C164347-1197-4A01-A893-FC84840885D9.jpeg

Looks a lot better than the 00z GEM.

[Bonovox]

GEPS day 10

4C164347-1197-4A01-A893-FC84840885D9.jpeg

The GEPS is a beauty.

[Catnip]

GEPS Day 13

BCD86C29-9D4B-4272-A336-88B72EBE100E.jpeg

16FE1B54-D3A0-40CE-AF0D-771F75A2076C.jpeg

[Monty]

Ensembles still look good. We could be tracking a snowfall in real time after another 36 or so GFS runs.

[Bonovox]

Ensembles still look good. We could be tracking a snowfall in real time after another 36 or so GFS runs.

The EPS will lead the way as usual.





I hope.

[Catnip]

Ensembles still look good. We could be tracking a snowfall in real time after another 36 or so GFS runs.

I’m not sure Sardine can handle 36 more rides on the model express.

[Bonovox]

I’m not sure Sardine can handle 36 more rides on the model express.

It's okay. He can just report back from the AF.

[Typeing3]

Again not much of a difference between the 00z and 18z.

Day 13 but that looks pretty decent. Arctic signal starting to show up over the north/interior and in AB.

[SouthSardiswx]

I’m not sure Sardine can handle 36 more rides on the model express.

No worries Gumps will put me on his shoulders.