September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

December 1990 also had a major snowfall event. YXX recorded 43.8cm on the 30th that month. Brief warm up afterwards before another period of arctic air settled in for about a week to start the new year. While the outflow winds were light during that event, it was very snowy. Looked like a colder version of February 2017. The peak snow depth at YXX was 44cm on January 9th, 1991. Overall, the 1990/91 winter was very exciting for weather enthusiasts. Would be awesome to see a repeat but again, winters around here nowadays don't seem to feature the back to back arctic blasts that used to be much more common. But having said that, the past few winters have been nice glimpse of the past. Maybe this upcoming winter will the one for the memory books? It's bound to happen again at some point. It sure would be nice but again I'm probably dreaming. But fingers crossed.

Didn't warm up after that huge New Years Eve snowstorm so we had some pretty extreme snow depths in early January 1991 following the second snowstorm.

The initial arctic blast in mid-late Dec was fairly dry but very cold.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

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[Coquitlam79]

Bella Coola might see a flood event. AR4 atmospheric river. Similar to the 2010 floods up there? According to this model, we get a small piece if it on the South Coast. Might see some problems in the Pemberton area with this pattern too even if the main band of the AR dips a little South.

prec2-27.png

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-7179200.png

[Catnip]

Just issued.

DEC-JAN-FEB

off03_temp.gif

off03_prcp.gif

JAN-FEB-MAR

off04_temp.gif

off04_prcp.gif

[Catnip]

Lock it in!

FS

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Lock it in!

FS

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png

Is this the new A.I. model Catters?

[SouthSardiswx]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png




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Mid 20's mid next week not bad for late September enjoy it forum friends l bet that will be the end for this year.
We reached a high on Friday of 18c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[SouthSardiswx]

Bella Coola might see a flood event. AR4 atmospheric river. Similar to the 2010 floods up there? According to this model, we get a small piece if it on the South Coast. Might see some problems in the Pemberton area with this pattern too even if the main band of the AR dips a little South.

prec2-27.png
gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-7179200.png

Awesome to see master Cmen69 chime in with his always accurate analysis.

[Glacier]

Below zero here in the Okanagan this morning. -0.3 and dropping

[SouthSardiswx]

Below zero here in the Okanagan this morning. -0.3 and dropping

Wow Glace excellent we hit 7c @ the pond in south Sardis this morning.

[stuffradio]

It dropped to 7C here this morning.

[AbbyJr]

While it's highly unlikely to verify, some Euro ensemble members have a major windstorm for next Thursday night. Given how early we are in the season, such a storm would likely devastate the power grid. Again, it's an unlikely scenario but worth watching nevertheless. Welcome to fall.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-6941600.png

Euro ensemble member #13:

xx_model-en-196-0_modezrpd_2024092118_132_5618_149_m13.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I don’t know how cold it was where I was camped in the Skagit Valley but it was pretty chilly. No frost, though.

[SouthSardiswx]

I don’t know how cold it was where I was camped in the Skagit Valley but it was pretty chilly. No frost, though.

Ballz warming season Rubes. we hit a high of 21c @ the pond in south Sardis on Saturday.

[SouthSardiswx]

While it's highly unlikely to verify, some Euro ensemble members have a major windstorm for next Thursday night. Given how early we are in the season, such a storm would likely devastate the power grid. Again, it's an unlikely scenario but worth watching nevertheless. Welcome to fall.


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-6941600.png


Euro ensemble member #13:
xx_model-en-196-0_modezrpd_2024092118_132_5618_149_m13.png

Thanks staying on top of it Wpro 2.0, l look forward to your fall and winter analysis this season keep up the good work.
I enjoy Cmen69's synopsis as well but he's more on the conservative side l think more to go with climo which is fine it keeps us grounded when models are showing us mind blowing maps.