January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Retrogression signs in the long range. About time, we've been in the wilderness for a while now.

[Hawk]

Yes yesterday was an ugly day even all the way up here in the silkameen. The temp spiked up to about five or six and then we started getting some light rain in the afternoon and when I say light rain I mean very light rain. So that back-to-back melty kind of days up here. If we never had that massive snowfall on Dec21 it would be pretty much bare up here by now.

[PortKells]

Yes yesterday was an ugly day even all the way up here in the silkameen. The temp spiked up to about five or six and then we started getting some light rain in the afternoon and when I say light rain I mean very light rain. So that back-to-back melty kind of days up here. If we never had that massive snowfall on Dec21 it would be pretty much bare up here by now.

What’s your elevation, just curious.

[PortKells]

More potential shown in the long range, details aside.

[Catnip]

More potential shown in the long range, details aside.

GFS is toying with the idea of wanting to dump a ton of cold air somewhere..... maybe east of the Rockies?

EPS not playing that game yet.

GEFS not quite there yet either.

[PortKells]

GFS is toying with the idea of wanting to dump a ton of cold air somewhere..... maybe east of the Rockies?

EPS not playing that game yet.

GEFS not quite there yet either.

Nito post in 5. 4. 3. 2....

[Radar]

My garlic is starting to grow nicely. Maybe early spring this year with some February 1st blossoms in 28 days. Should I start pruning trees soon? Probably a long spring full of rain this year.

[wetcoast91]

I will let the American Forums put a positive spin on it...but the model runs appear to indicate a potential split flow by mid month with positive heights along the West Coast. Aleutian low still present and cold air lodged firmly in Siberia and not inching anywhere.

[AbbyJr]

I will let the American Forums put a positive spin on it...but the model runs appear to indicate a potential split flow by mid month with positive heights along the West Coast. Aleutian low still present and cold air lodged firmly in Siberia and not inching anywhere.

Way too much run to run variability to have any kind of confidence in any given solution. SSW still in progress so to be expected.

[wetcoast91]

Way too much run to run variability to have any kind of confidence in any given solution. SSW still in progress so to be expected.

Models have been consistent with cold air pooling in Siberia with a gradual retreat of the AK vortex to allow for development of positive heights along the West Coast. MJO in a phase 4/5 state appears to be indicative of this.

This could set Western NA up for cold sometime down the road as a blocky regime takes hold but this appears unlikely for the next 2-3 weeks. More likely we see ridging and split flow.

Most of us have been thinking of a colder than normal FMA period and this appears to be on track.

One thing is for sure. The CFS and ECMWF weeklies have been awful this winter. Both had the East torching and the West getting cold by mid Jan.

[Catnip]

Models have been consistent with cold air pooling in Siberia with a gradual retreat of the AK vortex to allow for development of positive heights along the West Coast. MJO in a phase 4/5 state appears to be indicative of this.

This could set Western NA up for cold sometime down the road as a blocky regime takes hold but this appears unlikely for the next 2-3 weeks. More likely we see ridging and split flow.

Most of us have been thinking of a colder than normal FMA period and this appears to be on track.

One thing is for sure. The CFS and ECMWF weeklies have been awful this winter. Both had the East torching and the West getting cold by mid Jan.

#beginningofFEB

[AbbyJr]

Models have been consistent with cold air pooling in Siberia with a gradual retreat of the AK vortex to allow for development of positive heights along the West Coast. MJO in a phase 4/5 state appears to be indicative of this.

This could set Western NA up for cold sometime down the road as a blocky regime takes hold but this appears unlikely for the next 2-3 weeks. More likely we see ridging and split flow.

Most of us have been thinking of a colder than normal FMA period and this appears to be on track.

One thing is for sure. The CFS and ECMWF weeklies have been awful this winter. Both had the East torching and the West getting cold by mid Jan.

Well with the run to run variability, I was referring to the GFS. Ensembles have been consistent, but given the ongoing SSW, I would not be surprised to see a sudden flip in the models to a more desirable solution.

We may have to wait until February but I like our chances for the last week of January. Maybe I'm too optimistic but what I see in the models seems very consistent with a Siberian SSW, which usually results in a big pattern flip 2-3 weeks after the warming event completes.

Models will take time to catch up to the SSW induced atmospheric shakeup. In the meantime, the model ride continues.

[Snowman]

I had about 30 cm of snow from December 21-31 at my location. It took two days of gusty south winds and showers and it's already all gone . At least there is actually blue sky today! Currently 7 degrees.

[PortKells]

I had about 30 cm of snow from December 21-31 at my location. It took two days of gusty south winds and showers and it's already all gone . At least there is actually blue sky today! Currently 7 degrees.

I used to live in west Kelowna. What part are you in? Lakeview always seemed to do well for snow.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1345 ... 79424?s=20

2018 and 2019 worked out for us in February.