January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:26 pm Are you seriously trying to claim that March is snowier than November? Stats, please.
Yup! At least for the majority of time, over the period of record.


YVR (March/November)

1941-1970 normals: 5.3cm/2.3cm
1951-1980 normals: 6.6cm/2.8cm
1961-1990 normals: 4.1cm/2.6cm
1971-2000 normals: 2.6cm/2.5cm
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:56 pm I see them as the same. November is more fun though.
Recency bias? March has had some pretty great events. Higher proportion (in comparison to November) have occurred in the past rather than in contemporary times.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

GFS looks snowy. But it’s the GFS.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8627200.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_48hr_cm-8627200.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Radar »

Screenshot_28-1-2025_18171_spotwx.com.jpeg
So what's with the NAM for my place?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Euro looks stingier.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Flakey »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:17 pm Euro looks stingier.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png
Snow total predictions for this part of the world are always a crap shoot IMO as so many variables.
Hopefully all areas at least get something.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Radar »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:17 pm Euro looks stingier.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png
Last year I think the GEM and the GFS were the worst ones for predicting precip. Best was Euro and HRDPS
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:10 pm Recency bias? March has had some pretty great events. Higher proportion (in comparison to November) have occurred in the past rather than in contemporary times.
I'm 37 so just going off of what I've seen. The only really half decent March event I've seen in the last long while was 2017. Before that I guess it's 2009 and 2002. To be fair, November has been fairly mediocre outside of 2006. 2022 had a good snowfall, 2010 got cold, that's about it.

Outside than December and February, the other three months seem to be suffering the most.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

NAM is more aggressive with the cold air. Friday afternoon?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Huh? Kristi Gordon didn't even mention a word about this weekend very poor reporting.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is about to begin stay tuned

:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 15.0cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 3.5cm :cryhard:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:54 pm NAM is more aggressive with the cold air. Friday afternoon?
It always is at this range. :lol:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 7:34 pm It always is at this range. :lol:
Icon as well, with more snow for Saturday
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:48 pm I'm 37 so just going off of what I've seen. The only really half decent March event I've seen in the last long while was 2017. Before that I guess it's 2009 and 2002. To be fair, November has been fairly mediocre outside of 2006. 2022 had a good snowfall, 2010 got cold, that's about it.

Outside than December and February, the other three months seem to be suffering the most.
Some decent-good March snowfalls in 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2024.

Notable events occurred in 2002, 2009, 2017, and 2019, with either multiple snowfalls and/or snow on the ground for multiple days or more than a week.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS looks improved, snow and cold wise.

Snow begins Saturday evening, lasting into Sunday as the modified arctic air filters into the south coast from the north and interior.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 8:10 pm 00z GFS looks improved, snow and cold wise.

Snow begins Saturday evening, lasting into Sunday as the modified arctic air filters into the south coast from the north and interior.
Well into Monday
gfs-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-8584000.thumb.png.9ab659f65222d1d223902402bb4dbea2.png
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