October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Glacier]

I talked to my dad, and said, "so, I hear Williams Lake had 6cm of snow!"

He says, "I can't see any snow on the hills anywhere around Williams Lake."

Goes to show you that the airport is so far and high above the city that it can have 6 cm of snow and no one in the city actually knows it happened. That's assuming that Nav Canada isn't lying. I suspect they did get snow because the road report says there's snow on the Horsefly road, which is high elevation just to the east of the airport.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

From the US forum.

ecmwf_snow.jpg

[Typeing3]

From the US forum.
ecmwf_snow.jpg

Already posted in the winter thread.

[Antares]

Well I guess this winter will be a good test as to the general accuracy of these maps (which are obviously not detailed to begin with and aren't meant to be taken literally of course).

Going by this map, anything less than 120cm will be a bit underwhelming.

[Monty]

Well I guess this winter will be a good test as to the general accuracy of these maps (which are obviously not detailed to begin with and aren't meant to be taken literally of course).

Going by this map, anything less than 120cm will be a bit underwhelming.

It’s such a vague map, is it measuring actual anomalies from normal or is it showing probability. If it’s probability then technically anything above average would verify this forecast.

[Antares]

It’s such a vague map, is it measuring actual anomalies from normal or is it showing probability. If it’s probability then technically anything above average would verify this forecast.

Anomaly I guess.

One of the problems with this map is that it shows a huge negative anomaly over southcentral AK (thanks to a NE Pacific ridge). But that same ridge could easily give them a huge positive anomaly if it is just weak enough...

[Bonovox]

00z GEM.

[Bonovox]

00z GEM.

[Typeing3]

00z euro shows some snow for parts of the lower mainland and the island on day 9/10.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3519200.png

[PortKells]

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3519200.png

Lol! Could get interesting here right off the bat. I'm still wondering when the next November 96' style early event happens. Didn't the coast get slammed in a precursor to the holiday knockout blow?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

00z euro shows some snow for parts of the lower mainland and the island on day 9/10.

Yup:

light_snow.png

They’re already giddy with excitement over that general long-term forecast for cold on the American forum, despite how untrustworthy any 10-day forecast is.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It’s such a vague map, is it measuring actual anomalies from normal or is it showing probability. If it’s probability then technically anything above average would verify this forecast.

I get the feeling it’s probability.

[Monty]

Yup:
light_snow.png

They’re already giddy with excitement over that general long-term forecast for cold on the American forum, despite how untrustworthy any 10-day forecast is.

A few weeks later in the season and that would be a big snowstorm setup on the Euro.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

A few weeks later in the season and that would be a big snowstorm setup on the Euro.

In 1991, KBLI recorded 5 cm of snow on the 28th. So it could happen.