January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:23 pm Those were some pretty crooked numbers being shown on the euro wind maps for tomorrow night. Hasn’t been much talk of it but it could be a decent storm
Thanks for pointing that out. I'll keep a close eye on it. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The 00z GEPS actually amplifies the block and builds the SE ridge sooner than the 12z.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Looks like a rapidly deepening sub 990mb low crosses the south coast tomorrow night with strong jet support. Looks like about 130kmh SW surge down the Strait. If that wobbles north a bit it could get windy everywhere
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1576000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c-1576000.png
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:07 pm Looks like a rapidly deepening sub 990mb low crosses the south coast tomorrow night with strong jet support. Looks like about 130kmh SW surge down the Strait. If that wobbles north a bit it could get windy everywhere
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I don’t think the SE ridge is a big deal at this point. It’s a downstream response to a trough in the west. Alaskan ridge + a trough in the west = a SE ridge will come. I’m sure there are exceptions, but that’s generally the progression
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:09 pm
Through up a wind map my friend.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:07 pm Looks like a rapidly deepening sub 990mb low crosses the south coast tomorrow night with strong jet support. Looks like about 130kmh SW surge down the Strait. If that wobbles north a bit it could get windy everywhere
Peak wind in knots.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:06 pm The 00z GEPS actually amplifies the block and builds the SE ridge sooner than the 12z.
Hopefully the EPS follows suit. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:11 pm Peak wind in knots.
45-55knots is pretty windy.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:13 pm 45-55knots is pretty windy.
Yup. 80+ km/h
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Fooooph. Ensembles look okay. Only another 40 or so agonizing GFS runs before the goods are on our doorstep.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:16 pm Fooooph. Ensembles look okay. Only another 40 or so agonizing GFS runs before the goods are on our doorstep.
Haha yeah. I might have to take a night or two off from model riding. :shock:




Probably not though. ;)
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:16 pm Fooooph. Ensembles look okay. Only another 40 or so agonizing GFS runs before the goods are on our doorstep.
Front door or BACKDOOR?
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Catnip wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:18 pm Front door or BACKDOOR?
Is it possible to have it be both doors? :think:
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