Winter 2020-2021

[Catnip]

This is it folks. This is going to be the big one. I’m taking the over on 100cm at YVR this winter.

#winter2020/21

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1 ... 33958?s=19

Need to shove everything East a bit.

[AbbyJr]

I'm sorry to have to bring January 2011 back to memory, but correct me if I'm wrong, that was the month/year of the famous snowstorm bust? If so, I thought it was interesting that it was a strong La Nina year. Goes to show that even a strong La Nina can be oh so close to producing big.

[Weather101]

I'm sorry to have to bring January 2011 back to memory, but correct me if I'm wrong, that was the month/year of the famous snowstorm bust? If so, I thought it was interesting that it was a strong La Nina year. Goes to show that even a strong La Nina can be oh so close to producing big.

Any season can produce "big" if you consider one or two days of snow while the rest of the winter is warm and rainy as "big".

I'm not saying 2011 was but our winters really need everything to be perfect just to get a single day of snow. I also don't get caught up in the analogues from the 60s and 70s etc it really has no bearing what will happen in 2020/21 winter in my opinion, Mother nature will do what she wants which is usually a lot of rain.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’m thinking lots of cold rain in the lowlands and heavy snows in the mountains. There will be some lowland snow, but not an astounding amount, more like a typical amount. In other words, I’m playing the odds based on what strong La Niña years tend to be like. Skiers should be happy this winter.

[AbbyJr]

I’m thinking lots of cold rain in the lowlands and heavy snows in the mountains. There will be some lowland snow, but not an astounding amount, more like a typical amount. In other words, I’m playing the odds based on what strong La Niña years tend to be like. Skiers should be happy this winter.

Reasonable assessment. I'm working on putting together a winter forecast, which I will post on here. For a sneak peak, I'm leaning towards well above average rainfall and at least average snowfall with some sub-zero daytime highs as well. I also think we could see at least a couple of significant windstorms, especially in November. Still have to look at more data and finalize my thoughts but think active with lots of stuff to track, especially in the clown range.

[PortKells]

I’m thinking lots of cold rain in the lowlands and heavy snows in the mountains. There will be some lowland snow, but not an astounding amount, more like a typical amount. In other words, I’m playing the odds based on what strong La Niña years tend to be like. Skiers should be happy this winter.

Sums up my thoughts, I think W101's got a good take too. 50's/60's/70's are completely irrelevant to our current climate, maybe even the 90's too. We've been lucky to get 4 years with snow after those two god awful winters which followed some other lackluster ones.

I'm frankly happy with another 2017/18 winter which was a huge winner up in the mountains. If you want a chance at grade A snowfall, you may have to move to higher elevations or far inland and preferably at elevation as well. I grew up on Williams Lake and then West Kelowna winters, I sure do miss them sometimes.

[stuffradio]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 2535992320

[Weather101]

Reasonable assessment. I'm working on putting together a winter forecast, which I will post on here. For a sneak peak, I'm leaning towards well above average rainfall and at least average snowfall with some sub-zero daytime highs as well. I also think we could see at least a couple of significant windstorms, especially in November. Still have to look at more data and finalize my thoughts but think active with lots of stuff to track, especially in the clown range.

So a average winter lol

[Weather101]

Sums up my thoughts, I think W101's got a good take too. 50's/60's/70's are completely irrelevant to our current climate, maybe even the 90's too. We've been lucky to get 4 years with snow after those two god awful winters which followed some other lackluster ones.

I'm frankly happy with another 2017/18 winter which was a huge winner up in the mountains. If you want a chance at grade A snowfall, you may have to move to higher elevations or far inland and preferably at elevation as well. I grew up on Williams Lake and then West Kelowna winters, I sure do miss them sometimes.

I love to snowboard so I would take a 17/18 winter in a heartbeat. Living by YVR I don't really get my hopes up for big snowstorms anymore with this climate it just became what it is. I honestly feel as you said, We are lucky to even see snow every year.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I love to snowboard so I would take a 17/18 winter in a heartbeat. Living by YVR I don't really get my hopes up for big snowstorms anymore with this climate it just became what it is. I honestly feel as you said, We are lucky to even see snow every year.

When I lived in Seattle I did the numbers and Seattle gets measurable snow in about 85% of its winters (and most of that remaining 15% see flurries at least once). Vancouver (and Bellingham) gets more snow than Seattle, so this figure should be even higher up this way. Odds strongly disfavor a bust winter with no measurable lowland snow at all.

[Antares]

There is no "lucky".

The weather does what it does, and it snows every year, albeit not as much or as often as we would like.

And the notion that we can't, in the future, get good winters like in the 50s/60s anymore is hogwash. It's not like the climate was colder all across the board pre 1990 back to 1800. There were warm decades dispersed throughout the cold decades. But I know that doesn't jive with some ideologies.

[Typeing3]

When I lived in Seattle I did the numbers and Seattle gets measurable snow in about 85% of its winters (and most of that remaining 15% see flurries at least once). Vancouver (and Bellingham) gets more snow than Seattle, so this figure should be even higher up this way. Odds strongly disfavor a bust winter with no measurable lowland snow at all.

Vancouver's actually never had a winter without at least a trace of snow in recorded history.

On the flip side, we've had many years with 100cm+ of snow.

[Typeing3]

There is no "lucky".

The weather does what it does, and it snows every year, albeit not as much or as often as we would like.

And the notion that we can't, in the future, get good winters like in the 50s/60s anymore is hogwash. It's not like the climate was colder all across the board pre 1990 back to 1800. There were warm decades dispersed throughout the cold decades. But I know that doesn't jive with some ideologies.

Yep...the climate goes in cycles. I know we had a pretty dismal stretch back in the 30s and 40s in regards to snow and cold. The recent stretch we had was comparable if not even worse than that one.

When comparing our present climate to that 70, 80, 90 or 100 years ago though, it is pretty evident our climate now has a warmer/less snowy baseline. Sure we've always seen crappy winters but before we would almost always bounce back with huge events in the midst of a string of dismal winters (see January 1943 as an example).

I think Monty alluded to this in an earlier post, but while we can still get heavy snows comparable to past events, the extremely persistent cold waves we used to see on a relatively constant basis have basically evaporated in our current climate.

[AbbyJr]

There is no "lucky".

The weather does what it does, and it snows every year, albeit not as much or as often as we would like.

And the notion that we can't, in the future, get good winters like in the 50s/60s anymore is hogwash. It's not like the climate was colder all across the board pre 1990 back to 1800. There were warm decades dispersed throughout the cold decades. But I know that doesn't jive with some ideologies.

Exactly. I agree with you completely.