August 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Looks like the mid-late August period has the potential to be quite chilly across the west. Coldest anomalies centred over AB and SK with the PNW seeing a glancing blow as the ridge sets up just a tad too far east for the downstream trough to have a significant effect on us.
ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

Hawk's lock is still in effect I see. I'm sure the end result will be a few showers and partially cloudy and around 20-22C, at least here in the Lower Mainland.

I was up in Wells for a music festival for that last trough and it was actually shiveringly cold. On Sunday night the Northern lights came out and we were lying down on the pavement watching them while freezing our you know what's off...totally worth it though!!

[Canada Goose]

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[Typeing3]

Capture d’écran, le 2019-08-08 à 13.50.05.jpg

I honestly wouldn't mind the Euro solution. Temps on the cooler side but dry.

[AbbyJr]

Euro continues to look cool in the long range with the GOA ridge holding steady. Coldest air is still bottled up in the Yukon and NWT but does venture into northern BC/AB in the second frame with subzero 850mb temps.
ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png
ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

If only this pattern continues into winter. The good news is that an ENSO neutral is expected versus an El Nino.

[Typeing3]

If only this pattern continues into winter. The good news is that an ENSO neutral is expected versus an El Nino.

Haven't begun to look at analogues for this winter yet but I've seen 1992 and 1995 tossed around a lot on the american forum.

[Abby_wx]

I'm doubtful of the cooler solutions. Reality and the models have each painted slightly different pictures this summer. If one was going by the models alone, it would look like a cooler and wetter than normal summer, but that hasn't panned out in reality. It's a departure from recent years when the models consistently predicted non-stop heat and drought, but August 2008 this ain't.

[Monty]

I'm doubtful of the cooler solutions. Reality and the models have each painted slightly different pictures this summer. If one was going by the models alone, it would look like a cooler and wetter than normal summer, but that hasn't panned out in reality. It's a departure from recent years when the models consistently predicted non-stop heat and drought, but August 2008 this ain't.

There were many warm days in the first half of August 2008. Both Abbotsford and Shawnigan had 6 highs of 30+. Not saying the big troughy long range solutions will verify. My best guess is we end up closer to seasonal with the trough centered to our east.

[Monty]

Looks like we “might” see some storms tomorrow night

[Bonovox]

Pretty big disparity in tonight’s 0z GFS and GEM as far as total precipitation is concerned.

[Bonovox]

Looks like we “might” see some storms tomorrow night

CAPE values definitely look better for your area than the lower mainland.

[Monty]

CAPE values definitely look better for your area than the lower mainland.

Things will probably end up being focused to our south, as usual

[Typeing3]

Things will probably end up being focused to our south, as usual

When was the last time you guys had a thunderstorm? We had one just last week on Aug 1.

[Monty]

When was the last time you guys had a thunderstorm? We had one just last week on Aug 1.

Seems like it’s been years. Can’t remember the last time there was visible lightning but I’m sure we have heard a few distant rumbles a time or two. You guys see way more frequent thunderstorms over on the mainland

[John]

It seems showers are popping up?

[Monty]

It seems showers are popping up?

Tstorms be popping John. That cell near Bellingham looks intense