May 2020 Forecasts and Discussion

[John]

Thanks for the link. I noticed that the story was from April 17th. They said the worst thing that could happen is a period of cool weather followed by a sustained period of hot weather. And sure enough that is exactly what's happening, barring the ridging falling apart in the mid range, which never seems to happen with ridging.

Another thing to be very fearful about flooding

[Antares]

There won't be any disastrous flooding.

This is not a flood-prone area in the spring. Now, if there was considerable snow to melt at the lowlands, then yes.

Any rain that falls will not be enough to cause flooding.

Unless it's a 1 in 100 year event that is.

[Coquitlam79]

Thanks for the link. I noticed that the story was from April 17th. They said the worst thing that could happen is a period of cool weather followed by a sustained period of hot weather. And sure enough that is exactly what's happening, barring the ridging falling apart in the mid range, which never seems to happen with ridging.

The question is how warm will it get in the higher elevations and how long. 18z GFS abruptly breaks down ridge in week 2 and the CPC mentions some models showing a deamplification of the upper level pattern around 10-14 days out. There's some model uncertainty. I prefer cool, cloudy and slightly wet to have a slow melt situation instead of massive flooding that will come with an early heat wave.

[PortKells]

The question is how warm will it get in the higher elevations and how long. 18z GFS abruptly breaks down ridge in week 2 and the CPC mentions some models showing a deamplification of the upper level pattern around 10-14 days out. There's some model uncertainty. I prefer cool, cloudy and slightly wet to have a slow melt situation instead of massive flooding that will come with an early heat wave.

Good news..recent model runs have that ridge breaking down much sooner. Looks like a 4 or 5 day dry stretch, breaking down around the 11th. Love the variable weather pattern we seem to be in.

[PortKells]

Getting shadowed right now but theres a big blob on the way.

[tyweather]

Looks like it should be an interesting afternoon in weather. Some heavy showers on the radar and a special weather statement is up for winds!

[Coquitlam79]

Looks like it should be an interesting afternoon in weather. Some heavy showers on the radar and a special weather statement is up for winds!

Ya some orange and red showing on the radar in SW Washington. Will it reach us up here? It looks like the brunt of the action is south of the border. Some rain shadowing occuring too. Here in Coquitlam its been in a dry pocket for a couple of hours after the Initial wave. It looked brighter like it was maybe gonna clear up.

[PortKells]

Ya some orange and red showing on the radar in SW Washington. Will it reach us up here? It looks like the brunt of the action is south of the border. Some rain shadowing occuring too. Here in Coquitlam its been in a dry pocket for a couple of hours after the Initial wave. It looked brighter like it was maybe gonna clear up.

Looks like were getting the run of the mill stuff. So far. I saw some yellow over Aldergrove there.

[John]

Looks like were getting the run of the mill stuff. So far. I saw some yellow over Aldergrove there.

[SouthSardiswx]

Another thing to be very fearful about flooding

2018 the Vedder was very high I don't think this year will be bad John.

[SouthSardiswx]

There won't be any disastrous flooding.

This is not a flood-prone area in the spring. Now, if there was considerable snow to melt at the lowlands, then yes.

Any rain that falls will not be enough to cause flooding.

Unless it's a 1 in 100 year event that is.

Well Mr. Ant man we have a pandemic so anything is on the table including aliens.

[SouthSardiswx]

What's so funny John?

[SouthSardiswx]

Good news..recent model runs have that ridge breaking down much sooner. Looks like a 4 or 5 day dry stretch, breaking down around the 11th. Love the variable weather pattern we seem to be in.

So am'I Mr. Kells don't need a massive prolonged heatwave on top of this pandemic.

[Leighbugs]

Just been woken up by a LOUD hailstorm.

[Roberts Creeker]

Well Mr. Ant man we have a pandemic so anything is on the table including aliens.

Aliens! Where?