January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

The SSW is still underway and hasn't completed yet. You may be right, but are as equally likely to be wrong. As most leading SSW experts have stated, the ensembles are useless beyond 7 days until they get a handle on the SSW. This likely will not be until next week. So, we wait.

It doesn't matter what the models say.

He likes to joke around for fun. If the models were showing arctic air, he would say they are over amplifying the ridge.

Here's a quote from him:

Progressive pattern was always in the cards. This would bring varying weather such as heavy rain, dry and warm conditions and fringe lowland snow chances.

Those fools keep searching for arctic outbreaks which arent in the cards

He posted this on January 1st and by the 12th, we saw an arctic blast, so apparently arctic air was in the cards.

Being the winter grinch is just his way of having fun and I respect that.

[wetcoast91]

The SSW is still underway and hasn't completed yet. You may be right, but are as equally likely to be wrong. As most leading SSW experts have stated, the ensembles are useless beyond 7 days until they get a handle on the SSW. This likely will not be until next week. So, we wait.

We'll see...I do suspect we see a period or ridging mid to late Jan based on the anticipated evolution of a backloaded -ENSO pattern with a Jan SSW event. On the fence whether it evolves into a 2000 or 2019 JFM.

The pro of the persistant AK vortex is that it is destroying the warm SST anomalies. This cooling looks to continue in the E Pacific.



Edit:

Weeklies seem to suggest 2019-like evolution.

[wetcoast91]

It doesn't matter what the models say. He likes to joke around for fun. If the models were showing arctic air, he would say they are over amplifying the ridge. I recall last January he said those who were looking for arctic air were fools given that arctic air was never in the picture. Then maybe a week later we had an arctic outbreak.

Here's the exact quote:



This was on January 1st and by the 12th, we saw an arctic blast.

Being the winter grinch is just his way of having fun and I respect that.

To be fair...Southern WA and Oregon saw nothing from it and a strongish +PNA and +AO took over after that 6 day period. The weekly modeling performed well during Jan and Feb.

[AbbyJr]

To be fair...Southern WA and Oregon saw nothing from it and a strongish +PNA and +AO took over after that 6 day period. The weekly modeling performed well during Jan and Feb.

Fair enough. No doubt the American models had that cold snap way overdone. PNA didn't drop nearly as negative as modelled IIRC.

By the way, I wasn't making fun of you or anything. I love your contributions on this forum. I was just making a point that you do like to put a fork in our cold and snow chances, and joke around with mild rains. This is something you've admitted yourself but its all good.

We all have our biases. I will admit I have a cold bias myself. But its about balancing our biases with reality and I'm trying to do that more.

That said, I do think we have a solid chance of an arctic outbreak either mid or late January. The intensity and exact details remain to be seen.

But this SSW is still in progress so details won't be known for a while yet. I do expect a flip in the models in the coming week or two.

[stuffradio]

It's also very possible our winter will be so back-loaded that we won't see the colder anomalies until later Feb into March/April. We won't know yet though so there's no point in fretting over model runs. I do love to look at eye candy though so that's the only sad part.

[AbbyJr]

It's also very possible our winter will be so back-loaded that we won't see the colder anomalies until later Feb into March/April. We won't know yet though so there's no point in fretting over model runs. I do love to look at eye candy though so that's the only sad part.

Its possible but I think its highly unlikely we have to wait that long.

[stuffradio]

In 2 weeks, we're gaining 2 minutes of light a day. I look forward to brighter days regardless of how much snow we end up getting. I love Spring and Cherry blossoms!

[John]

It doesn't matter what the models say.

He likes to joke around for fun. If the models were showing arctic air, he would say they are over amplifying the ridge.

Here's a quote from him:



He posted this on January 1st and by the 12th, we saw an arctic blast, so apparently arctic air was in the cards.

Being the winter grinch is just his way of having fun and I respect that.

Nito is just messing with you all and enjoying it lol. Remember he sometimes signs in with a different name and talks completely different.......

Yeah everyone nito is weatherpro I am sure of it!!

[wetcoast91]

Nito is just messing with you all and enjoying it lol. Remember he sometimes signs in with a different name and talks completely different.......

Yeah everyone nito is weatherpro I am sure of it!!

If I am weatherpro then you are Weather101.

[John]

If I am weatherpro then you are Weather101.

Maybe but why?

[Forrest Gump]

Where's my rain? Maybe there won't be much as forecasted in the coming week.

[Monty]

To be fair...Southern WA and Oregon saw nothing from it and a strongish +PNA and +AO took over after that 6 day period. The weekly modeling performed well during Jan and Feb.

6 days for a cold snap is pretty much all you can expect around here. That hasn’t really changed much over the years. We just don’t get as many of them.

[Catnip]

Don’t worry guys and gals....

#beginningofFEB

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/stat ... 80104?s=21

[Catnip]

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