January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

He’s retired from the NWS Seattle. Definitely knows his sh*t about the weather around these parts.

Just keep off his personal Twitter... too political!

Haha yeah. I’m glad he separated his weather and personal accounts for that reason.

[Catnip]

Bono, are you ready for the 00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz?

[Antares]

Wake me up when the flakes start to fly.

[Bonovox]

Bono, are you ready for the 00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz?

I might be a little late, but I’m ready, butte!!!

[Bonovox]

Wake me up when the flakes start to fly.

So, in 10 days or so. That’s going to be a long sleep. Impressive.

[Forrest Gump]

Bono, are you ready ! Unos, dos, tres, catorce!

[Forrest Gump]

I might be a little late, but I’m ready, buttee!! Turn it up loud, captain!

[Catnip]

Grab you Vitog and get ready Mr. My Mama Always Said!

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[Forrest Gump]

Grab you Vitog and get ready Mr. My Mama Always Said!

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Touchdown! Who needs a football?

[AbbyJr]

Nothing wrong with finding a little positive to focus on. Its a new year, maybe good things can happen now.

I will say that yes, this could very well be just an average winter event here. Its impossible to know this far out. But I will also say I've never seen this kind of model consistency from the ensembles at this range. Is it that big of a stretch that something incredible could be brewing? With a normal arctic blast you would see run to run variation before it finally becomes more certain within 150-200 hours. If the models have it pegged that an "average" arctic blast is happening, maybe it becomes clearer as we close in that its top tier.

The other thing I'm noting is the consistent rate of improvement in the EPS. I keep thinking that has to slow down at some point and it definitely does, but it wouldn't take much more of this positive trend to put us in a headlock of deep freeze and deep snow. It just has to maintain it for the next 20 or so runs, lol. But even still, I'm curious to see if its a long lasting sort of cold pattern, which would be fun.

Having said all that, there is always bust potential. I would already put this under "rug pull" territory. I think back to last year's arctic blast and how much less disappointing it would have been if those GFS operational runs hadn't been showing mornings of -17 for YVR Lmao! Like all in all that was a great event but it just didn't live up to its hype.

To be fair, last years arctic blast was really only hyped up on the GFS. Most of the ensembles and other models had a run of the mill cold snap. In the end, a shorter lived and less intense version of the GFS solution verified. We also had a less favourable atmospheric state with a +ENSO/-QBO and no SSW to weaken the Polar Vortex. Its actually a miracle, in my opinion, that we even got the cold snap we got with the vortex being so strong and the ENSO and QBO not in our favour.

This time around, we have all the ensembles on board and continuing to trend colder run to run. We also have a much more favourable atmospheric state with a -ENSO/+QBO and SSW.

So I think this time around has a much better chance of being epic than last time.

[Catnip]

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[Typeing3]

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Backdoor!

[wetcoast91]

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Trough digging a bit too south no?

[Hawk]

Backdoor!

I would say Basement door...thats a Cali/Oregon coldsnap for the buttees in AF

[Hawk]

Trough digging a bit too south no?

Could be the beginning of the end Nito. I sense a complete model collapse in the next 48. Our epic 1954/1971 redux will be squashed.
Will end up with some wet flurries and cold rain instead.