January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Waaaay to early to guess that!

[Bonovox]

Another night of model riding!

[AbbyJr]

I just suggest the systems may slide down from the north rather than directly from the west. My guess is the entire lower mainland would be hit. I'm almost sensing a period we might see like the time the army was called in to rescue people from the fraser valley. If this pattern verifies, you are going to see some crazy winter weather.

January 1969 pattern just later in the month?

[AbbyJr]

You can be WeatherPro Jr. Then I can retire.

Thanks but then we would miss all your updates and insights. We really do value your posts.

[John]

I just suggest the systems may slide down from the north rather than directly from the west. My guess is the entire lower mainland would be hit. I'm almost sensing a period we might see like the time the army was called in to rescue people from the fraser valley. If this pattern verifies, you are going to see some crazy winter weather.

[John]

It’s looking like a very average winter outbreak for those of you who don’t look at the models a lot of hype in my opinion but it’s fun I guess

[Catnip]

Resolution is not so great but I expect all of BC except for Abbotsford to be under 500m of ice by late Feb.

Poor Jr.

20C43A8F-8C39-49AE-9981-1F9BFE991B78.jpeg

[Typeing3]

Incredible model output again today!

If this keeps up we my see systems sliding down the coast giving multiple snowfalls, and at least one blizzard like situation is shaping up as a possibility. I hope the future runs remain consistent!

Snowy systems will ride down the coast most likely:

20211.jpg

This will all lead to at least 1 major:

20212.jpg

The legend is back!

[Typeing3]

Poor Jr.

20C43A8F-8C39-49AE-9981-1F9BFE991B78.jpeg

Nothing but cold rain for Abbotsford...as usual.

[Catnip]

Typer:

#SEridge

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 17379?s=21

[PortKells]

It’s looking like a very average winter outbreak for those of you who don’t look at the models a lot of hype in my opinion but it’s fun I guess

Nothing wrong with finding a little positive to focus on. Its a new year, maybe good things can happen now.

I will say that yes, this could very well be just an average winter event here. Its impossible to know this far out. But I will also say I've never seen this kind of model consistency from the ensembles at this range. Is it that big of a stretch that something incredible could be brewing? With a normal arctic blast you would see run to run variation before it finally becomes more certain within 150-200 hours. If the models have it pegged that an "average" arctic blast is happening, maybe it becomes clearer as we close in that its top tier.

The other thing I'm noting is the consistent rate of improvement in the EPS. I keep thinking that has to slow down at some point and it definitely does, but it wouldn't take much more of this positive trend to put us in a headlock of deep freeze and deep snow. It just has to maintain it for the next 20 or so runs, lol. But even still, I'm curious to see if its a long lasting sort of cold pattern, which would be fun.

Having said all that, there is always bust potential. I would already put this under "rug pull" territory. I think back to last year's arctic blast and how much less disappointing it would have been if those GFS operational runs hadn't been showing mornings of -17 for YVR Lmao! Like all in all that was a great event but it just didn't live up to its hype.

[Typeing3]

Typer:

#SEridge

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 17379?s=21

I like this guy.

[Catnip]

I like this guy.

He’s retired from the NWS Seattle. Definitely knows his sh*t about the weather around these parts.

Just keep off his personal Twitter... too political!

[Hound]

Just saw Tyler on The Weather Network talking about a pattern change starting next week and outflow conditions developing. He also mentioned the possibility of lows forming and sliding down the coast giving snow flurries down to sea level! Kinda like what WeatherPro said. OMG Tyler is WP!!

[Hawk]

Incredible model output again today!

If this keeps up we my see systems sliding down the coast giving multiple snowfalls, and at least one blizzard like situation is shaping up as a possibility. I hope the future runs remain consistent!

Snowy systems will ride down the coast most likely:

20211.jpg

This will all lead to at least 1 major:

20212.jpg

Nice maps WP! Love the second one the best

Yes we deserve it after a sad start. I pick ~Jan 24 as the region wide dump. Maybe thats THE BIG ONE!!!