December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

hawk2 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:02 pm If the GFS fails this weekend again they might as well just throw that model out it's such a disaster most of the time :bs: :bs:
Wouldn’t be a surprise if it does. It has a cold bias. Remember last January?

I’d be more optimistic if the Euro was calling for snow.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:14 pm Wouldn’t be a surprise if it does. It has a cold bias. Remember last January?

I’d be more optimistic if the Euro was calling for snow.
It did on the 12z run. How did that go?
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:19 pm It did on the 12z run. How did that go?
Outliers will outlie.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

I like to look at individual members on the ensemble when there is a marginal event a few days out. As you can see, we are threading the needle. Cool to have something to track finally, however.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:38 pm I like to look at individual members on the ensemble when there is a marginal event a few days out. As you can see, we are threading the needle. Cool to have something to track finally, however.
And here is the GEPS. I'm a little more hopeful now. There are a few members that have an ideal low placement.
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Monty
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:51 pm And here is the GEPS. I'm a little more hopeful now. There are a few members that have an ideal low placement.
The GEM looks a little more promising than the GFS. But lots of spread in both.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:02 am The GEM looks a little more promising than the GFS. But lots of spread in both.
Yeah, I got the same impression. Here is the EPS for fun.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Meh. 12z nam went way south. Still lots of uncertainty.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:13 am Meh. 12z nam went way south. Still lots of uncertainty.
Nice score..i'm just hoping GFS gets it right one time. So far its like
NFS 9 GFS 0 :roll:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month :D
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:03 am 06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
:lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:03 am 06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
Pretty dry climate there. Hopefully you get some real snow of the holidays.😄
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I could probably make due with this but it looks a touch warm for my Vancouver friends.
2979A6CD-7B75-4C25-B02A-F643A638CBCB.png
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

RGEM has the low crossing northern Vancouver island for heavy rain and wind in the south coast. I don’t put much stock in the mesoscale models at this range but track uncertainty is about the same as last night so far this morning
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by hawk2 »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:18 am Pretty dry climate there. Hopefully you get some real snow of the holidays.😄
Yes it is but I am in an area where we got more snow and we sometimes get 6 to 12 in dumps which is nice. The best thing is it never really melts
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