February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

So much ❤❤❤ here today. Was Snowless ❤ Day yesterday?

[Monty]

Phil has already cancelled next winter.

2007/08 wasn’t a great winter but certainly not a winter cancel situation. 111cm of snow at YXX. 140cm of snow at Shawnigan lake.

[AbbyJr]

2007/08 wasn’t a great winter but certainly not a winter cancel situation. 111cm of snow at YXX. 140cm of snow at Shawnigan lake.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. While 2007/2008 did not feature any prolonged arctic cold, there were several low elevation snows including a couple of significant snowstorms in December.

December 2nd was the most significant, with 30.2cm falling in Abbotsford prior to a sudden warm up and damaging winds.

Then on December 27th, another snowstorm hit with 15cm falling.

There was another decent snowfall (11cm at YXX) on January 29th 2008. Though I wouldn't call anything under 15cm a snowstorm.

While the snow did not stay on the ground for long, it was certainly a far cry from winter cancel.

I greatly respect Phils knowledge, but I think his theories tend to be narrow minded. He seems to think that unless the perfect ingredients come together, its winter cancel. But the reality is anything can happen on any given day. Sure, a -QB0 during -ENSO is not the best for promoting amplification of the N Pacific ridge, it doesn't mean that ridge can not amplify at times or we can not see a strong maritime polar airmass deliver a widespread snowstorm. I guess it depends on how you define a solid winter. If you are looking at a January 1954, December 1996, and December 2008 type of event, you really need the perfect ingredients to come together. But in my opinion, a winter can still be solid even if its not as epic as those years I mentioned.

[PortKells]

No I didn’t mean you are immature but the others who removed your well written post.

Only passive aggressive Greta mentions and random political talk should be considered as mature.

[Monty]

Sure has dried out after January here. Just barely more than 2mm of rain in the last 8 days.

[John]

Only passive aggressive Greta mentions and random political talk should be considered as mature.

Not passive aggressive at all buddy! Just like all the different opinions to be heard, I love everyone

I too do believe in global warming BTW
Just not a crisis imo sea level has hardly risen so far but if you hear the media we are all going to die in 10 years highly exaggerated

[AbbyJr]

Based on latest model trends, I'd guess we'll see another snowfall in March. May end up being a slushfest or a short lived special.

At this point, unless its anything epic (which is unlikely) I think I'd rather just see sunny and +15C. But I will always model ride.

[Canada Goose]

I too do believe in global warming BTW
Just not a crisis imo sea level has hardly risen so far but if you hear the media we are all going to die in 10 years highly exaggerated

Absolutely...

[Antares]

Phil has already cancelled next winter.

Yup, time to move to a more continental climate (i.e. out of southern BC).

[Monty]

Tomorrow looks kind of interesting as that cold trough swings through and the atmosphere destabilizes. Heavy showers, possible hail and bursts of heavy wet snow. Outside shot at a t shower.

[SouthSardiswx]

Tomorrow looks kind of interesting as that cold trough swings through and the atmosphere destabilizes. Heavy showers, possible hail and bursts of heavy wet snow. Outside shot at a t shower.

So don't hang onto metal?

[Mattman]

So Phil on the AF canceled next winter?! Cliff Mass' latest blog outlined how we are possibly heading towards neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific. If that verifies that is the antithesis of "cancel winter."

[Antares]

So Phil on the AF canceled next winter?! Cliff Mass' latest blog outlined how we are possibly heading towards neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific. If that verifies that is the antithesis of "cancel winter."

Kinda early to cancel next winter, even for Phil.

His forecasts don't usually verify so we have that going for us.

[John]

An extended dry stretch would be nice any chance anyone?

[stuffradio]

An extended dry stretch would be nice any chance anyone?

Models are showing this is starting to become a possibility.