January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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[Typeing3]

06z GFS
Day 5 to Day 13

North Pacific blocking!

gfs_z500a_npac_fh120-312.gif

[PortKells]

Looks like the rug pull has begun
pulling_the_rug_out.jpg

For the oreganos maybe. Looks perfect for BC. I demand Nito explain this!

[PortKells]

06z GFS
Day 5 to Day 13

North Pacific blocking!
gfs_z500a_npac_fh120-312.gif

Feb 2017!

6B358B7C-AA47-4C0A-9FD7-ABB5254D596F.png

[wetcoast91]

It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.

[stuffradio]

It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.

Some of our heaviest snows are around -1 to 1C.

[PortKells]

It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.

Hopefully not a case of being in the sweet spot too early like Jan 2011. Gives me some pause.

[tyweather]

Feb 2017!

6B358B7C-AA47-4C0A-9FD7-ABB5254D596F.png

I am looking forward to the local hills finally fully opening up.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The string of -4’s continues. -4.1˚C this morning.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.

It’s one of the easiest ways we get a snowfail instead of a snowfall here: too much cold air, tumbleweeds here, all the snowy fun caused by cold air clashing with moist marine air stays well to our south. Weaker blasts tend to be better for us if you want snow.

[wetcoast91]

Orientation of the trough favours heavier snow showers for Western Vancouver Island and Eastern Fraser Valley. This GFS run makes me feel that 10-15cm could be a good bet on Saturday-Sunday.

Probably a scenario where Eastern Vancouver Island remains bone dry and Metro Vancouver sees periodic slushy showers that don't accumulate to much.

Looks better on Sunday Evening as the arctic outflow kicks up but the Lower Mainland dries out.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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Ensemble mean dipping below the -7˚C mark in all three, but six days out. If it’s sticking to the same schedule tomorrow, it will be five days out, finally inside the believable range and worth starting to get excited about.

[SouthSardiswx]

Ensemble mean dipping below the -7˚C mark in all three, but six days out. If it’s sticking to the same schedule tomorrow, it will be five days out, finally inside the believable range and worth starting to get excited about.

Any idea how far south the modified Arctic air drops are we talking another Seattle skunker. that would really get them riled up.

IMG_20250127_081931947_HDR.jpg

[Radar]

Orientation of the trough favours heavier snow showers for Western Vancouver Island and Eastern Fraser Valley. This GFS run makes me feel that 10-15cm could be a good bet on Saturday-Sunday.

Probably a scenario where Eastern Vancouver Island remains bone dry and Metro Vancouver sees periodic slushy showers that don't accumulate to much.

Looks better on Sunday Evening as the arctic outflow kicks up but the Lower Mainland dries out.

Don't forget the rug pull later today on things. End up with showers and highs of 4. hahaha.

[Hawk]

It seems to me that these fake cold periods often lead to favourable winter conditions and snow