January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

NITO!

It's happening!

Still plenty of time for it to go wrong

[PortKells]

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[Catnip]

Still plenty of time for it to go wrong

Yup....

Or get even better

[Bonovox]

NITO!

It's happening!

I think we may have to buy NITO a new computer.

[Catnip]

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[PortKells]

Still plenty of time for it to go wrong

You hearing these rumours of model fraud? Crazy stuff, but the fake news will never cover it. You’re trying to tell me the EPS is actually going arctic? Pfft. The East is the true winner here.

[Bonovox]

The 18z will be insane

John has spoken.

[wetcoast91]

John has spoken.

[Typeing3]

Still plenty of time for it to go wrong

Honest thoughts, how do you think this will play out? I've been expecting the models to waver but we now seem to have consistent ensemble agreement across the board (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) 10-15 days out.

Strong temp anomaly signals 300-360hrs out on the EPS are also pretty remarkable for a long range ensemble mean.

[John]

Honest thoughts, how do you think this will play out? I've been expecting the models to waver but we now seem to have consistent ensemble agreement across the board (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) 10-15 days out.

Strong temp anomaly signals 300-360hrs out on the EPS are also pretty remarkable for a long range ensemble mean.

Could be great, average or all
Move east honestly people are to optimistic for it being this far out but there is potential

[wetcoast91]

Honest thoughts, how do you think this will play out? I've been expecting the models to waver but we now seem to have consistent ensemble agreement across the board (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) 10-15 days out.

Strong temp anomaly signals 300-360hrs out on the EPS are also pretty remarkable for a long range ensemble mean.

Who knows. Long range models have been consistent about this change for a few weeks. What is known is that AK vortex and the current pattern is going to change. What remains to be seen is how amplified that ridge gets out in the Pacific.

[Typeing3]

Who knows. Long range models have been consistent about this change for a few weeks. What is known is that AK vortex and the current pattern is going to change. What remains to be seen is how amplified that ridge gets out in the Pacific.

That AK vortex has been a semi permanent figure over the past couple winters. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a trend to weaken the NPAC ridge in the coming days...at worst we'll probably be stuck in a NW flow pattern for a few weeks.

[Catnip]

Weeklies

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[Catnip]

Temps

14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 850T Anom.gif

[Catnip]

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