January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Were in for another GFS letdown. Those ensembles just aren't there. #beginningoffeb?

[Typeing3]

Sad...
https://mobile.twitter.com/YVR__Weather ... 5368457217

[Storm]

Special Weather Statement for Greater Victoria, hey Monty any chance for wet snow here tomorrow morning?

Highly doubtful IMO

[Catnip]

Special Weather Statement for Greater Victoria, hey Monty any chance for wet snow here tomorrow morning?

Highly doubtful IMO

Go for a drive up to Sutton Pass.

[PortKells]

Sad...
https://mobile.twitter.com/YVR__Weather ... 5368457217

Must be that heat island affect

[AbbyJr]

Were in for another GFS letdown. Those ensembles just aren't there. #beginningoffeb?

Not necessarily but you could be right. The issue with the ensemble mean is that if there are other warm members, it won't run as cold as the operational models. That said, the same is true if there are other cold members. It won't run as warm in that case as the operational would. Ensembles are important but that is one factor one must consider.

[Catnip]

00z Nam snow

3A9DD4AE-C902-40DD-81FE-A0253EF6056D.png

[Canada Goose]

Vancouver or Quebec City?

Capture d’écran 2020-01-01 à 19.32.41.jpg

[PortKells]

Not necessarily but you could be right. The issue with the ensemble mean is that if there are other warm members, it won't run as cold as the operational models. That said, the same is true if there are other cold members. It won't run as warm in that case as the operational would. Ensembles are important but that is one factor one must consider.

I mean, the mean doesn't drop below average for 11 days. It's not a case of a couple crazy warm outliers. The operational should be considered drunk until proven sober. Having said that, those solutions could verify down the road even in that 10-15 period, but weve been on that carrot train to nowhere for a good 3 weeks now.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

A surprisingly sunny day here in Whatcom County. Had a nice walk along the beach at Point Whitehorn on the Strait of Georgia shores. Between the sunshine and the south-facing aspect, it must have been 60ËšF (16ËšC). Then the clouds came and the breeze picked up and it was time to put my jacket back on.

whitehorn1.jpg

whitehorn2.jpg

[AbbyJr]

I mean, the mean doesn't drop below average for 11 days. It's not a case of a couple crazy warm outliers. The operational should be considered drunk until proven sober. Having said that, those solutions could verify down the road even in that 10-15 period, but weve been on that carrot train to nowhere for a good 3 weeks now.

Are you talking about the GEFS or the EPS? And I agree the operational GFS runs are crazy and likely not to verify with the intensity shown, but it is interesting that those epic cold and snowy GFS runs keep showing up. Often the crazy cold outliers don't show up run after run. Yet, we've seen them appear multiple times in the past week only to suddenly disappear but then reemerge for multiple runs.

[stuffradio]

Thunderstorms?

Screen Shot 2020-01-01 at 7.52.37 PM.png

[Roberts Creeker]

Hi everyone, finally got set up again. I’m in Misssion at Cedar and McRae area, so about halfway up the hill. Been a lurker for years.

Welcome Maximus! It's nice to 'see' you, thank you for posting.

[AbbyJr]

Sorry Nito.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1 ... 62848?s=20

[Roberts Creeker]

Happy new year everyone... I'm lurking as usual but thought I'd chime in. I seem to remember long range thicknesses forecast in the high 490s for Abbotsford a number of years ago. Perhaps December 08? Can't quite remember the date but do remember seeing it... Obviously didn't verify but got close one of those days I seem to remember Abbywx hitting -15 briefly in Abbotsford one cold morning.

Welcome Arbetrader. Nice to see you posting.