August 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hound]

Ha! I consider anything above 25c to be a heat warning for me. 30c is already way past a warning stage. 35c should be extreme heat warning, especially in BC.

[Glacier]

Ha! I consider anything above 25c to be a heat warning for me. 30c is already way past a warning stage. 35c should be extreme heat warning, especially in BC.

I was referring to the mean. That would be 35C in the day and 15C at night. Of if you're in Ontario it would be like 30C in the day and 20C at night.

[Canada Goose]

39.2C in Warfield (max of this summer in BC and Canada)
38.6C in Ashcroft
37.7C in Lytton and Osoyoos
37.3C in Castlegar and Nelson
37.1C in Lillooet
37.0C in Kelowna
36.4C in Kamloops
36.1C in Summerland
36.0C in Penticton

18z GFS is hoooot!

[AbbyJr]

2008 saw a persistent pattern similar to this in late August, so it’s not a bad sign.

3807777A-5213-477D-8EB1-E0BCC8347A15.gif6E5C99C0-8F34-4484-AB76-3689CCD2A6D3.gif

We are long overdue for a 2008 style Arctic blast. Lower Mainland and valley got hammered with cold and snow.

[Canada Goose]

Dry...

Warfield.jpg

[Monty]

Must have been quite a bit of growth on that fire in the south Okanagan this afternoon. The heat and smoke plume were visible on radar.

[tyweather]

The operational GFS has 48mm of precipitation for Abbotsford on Sunday. The ensemble has virtually nothing for Vancouver.

[Monty]

The operational GFS has 48mm of precipitation for Abbotsford on Sunday. The ensemble has virtually nothing for Vancouver.

[Glacier]

39.2C in Warfield (max of this summer in BC and Canada)
38.6C in Ashcroft
37.7C in Lytton and Osoyoos
37.3C in Castlegar and Nelson
37.1C in Lillooet
37.0C in Kelowna
36.4C in Kamloops
36.1C in Summerland
36.0C in Penticton

18z GFS is hoooot!

One thing that's very interesting that when EC switched stations from manual to automated, many (but by no means all) started reading hotter during the day and colder at night.
Examples:
Warfield
Osoyoos
Tatlayoko Lake
Burns Lake

It could be site selection, but it's interesting that I've never found any stations that have done the opposite. The airport stations generally were the same before and after.

Also, Lytton is an interesting one. Two stations at the same location. One operated by EC and one by NavCanaada, and yet the EC will often read a full degree hotter on days like we've had this week! How can it be more than a degree hotter a few meters away, but only when it's flippin' hot!?

[Canada Goose]

Also, Lytton is an interesting one. Two stations at the same location. One operated by EC and one by NavCanaada, and yet the EC will often read a full degree hotter on days like we've had this week! How can it be more than a degree hotter a few meters away, but only when it's flippin' hot!?

Absolutely, and we have already talked about it.

Here are some photos of the Lytton station I took on July 1st. Good site (uphill), but for sure this is not the hottest site of the town.
If there was a station in the town, 100 m lower, it would be hotter.

Lytton.jpg

Lytton (2).jpg

Lytton (3).jpg

Lytton (4).jpg

[Glacier]

Absolutely, and we have already talked about it.

Here are some photos of the Lytton station I took on July 1st. Good site (uphill), but for sure this is not the hottest site of the town.
If there was a station in the town, 100 m lower, it would be hotter.

Is that just one of the stations or both?

P.S. Have you revived the old thread where we post pictures of weather stations yet?

[Canada Goose]

Is that just one of the stations or both?

P.S. Have you revived the old thread where we post pictures of weather stations yet?

Both, but I don't know which ones are the first and the second.

PS: I have to!

Edit: Done!

[Typeing3]

12z ensembles are cool in the short and mid range but are fairly dry at least.

[Typeing3]

Euro continues to look cool in the long range with the GOA ridge holding steady. Coldest air is still bottled up in the Yukon and NWT but does venture into northern BC/AB in the second frame with subzero 850mb temps.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

[Typeing3]

Looks like the mid-late August period has the potential to be quite chilly across the west. Coldest anomalies centred over AB and SK with the PNW seeing a glancing blow as the ridge sets up just a tad too far east for the downstream trough to have a significant effect on us.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png